Chavez, Again. Did Uncle Jimmy Get Duped?
OK, OK, I admit it. This is a bit like crack. But I can't help myself. We're back ONCE AGAIN to Venezuela's huckster President Hugo Chavez.
No sooner had the (Jimmy) Carter Center signed off on El Big Mouth's victory in last month's recall plebescite then comes along a serious academic study strongly suggesting that Carter got duped... that the election results were...um... fraudulent.
The story is carried in today's Wall Street Opinion Journal. And, yes, I know and agree that this is a partisan source with a fixed anti-Chavez agenda. But, the study the piece is based on comes from two economists, one at Harvard and another at MIT, who come up with some pretty startling conclusions.
Like, based on mathematical models, the results reported by the Chavez administration have a probability of 1 in 100 of NOT being fraudulent:
The money graphs:
The new study was released this week by economists Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard and Roberto Rigobon of MIT. They zeroed in on a key problem with the August 18 vote audit that was run by the government's electoral council (CNE): In choosing which polling stations would be audited, the CNE refused to use the random number generator recommended by the Carter Center. Instead, the CNE insisted on its own program, run on its own computer. Mr. Carter's team acquiesced, and Messrs. Hausmann and Rigobon conclude that, in controlling this software, the government had the means to cheat. "This result opens the possibility that the fraud was committed only in a subset of the 4,580 automated centers, say 3,000, and that the audit was successful because it directed the search to the 1,580 unaltered centers. That is why it was so important not to use the Carter Center number generator. If this was the case, Carter could never have figured it out." Mr. Hausmann told us that he and Mr. Rigoban also "found very clear trails of fraud in the statistical record" and a probability of less than 1% that the anomalies observed could be pure chance. To put it another way, they think the chance is 99% that there was electoral fraud.This story, of course, is going to go nowhere. Chavez' victory is a politcal fait accompli. The multi-national oil companies that do lucrative business with him have decided to make peace. The Bush administration which has tried to subvert Chavez has its hands full with an election and an unraveling Iraqi war. And the international and American left long ago decided to whore for Chavez -- seeing him as some sort of anti-American hero. Check out David Holiday's El Salvador-based blog for another good story on this alleged fraud. You'll find that today's OpinionJournal piece is actually based on a story two days ago that ran in the news pages of the WSJ-- pages that in no way bear the political taint of the Opinion section. Holiday also has the Carter Center's version of events. In the meantime, all together now, and loudly: Viva Presidente Chavez!
September 9th, 2004 at 6:49 pm
i say it’s time to invade the country and take it over!!
September 9th, 2004 at 7:03 pm
I’m for that Steve…..
September 9th, 2004 at 7:08 pm
should we nuke or just carpet bomb?
September 9th, 2004 at 7:15 pm
Oh Hell…..let’s just carpet bomb…
September 10th, 2004 at 6:13 am
If Chavez throws a lavish dinner party and invites Mark (camera in tow), I bet we can get these two kids together & work this out.
September 10th, 2004 at 6:17 am
Umm, that’s “Marc.”
Indeed, I can see Marc on an eating and pix snapping tour of Cent. America. Got a prob with ARENA in E. Salvador (who would never tamper with free elections)? Feast with them!
September 10th, 2004 at 7:21 am
Santo.. perhaps u should one day take a look at what Ive written about ARENA’s death squads. In the meantime, thanks for the auto-portrait connected to ur email!
September 10th, 2004 at 8:29 am
No prob, Marc! And I know you’ve dissected ARENA. Just messing w/you over your Chavez obsession.
If you liked that pic, click on my name again to see me pulling a young Christopher Hitchens, drenched in gin, out of a bar. The creature to Hitch’s left was one of his many DT hallucinations.
September 10th, 2004 at 9:44 am
I’m not a bit surprised. Carter falls all over himself to side with dictators. I don’t know how someone can close his eyes to election fraud–especially when it will lead to continuing atrocities and innocent deaths.
People talk about what a great ex-president Carter is, primarily because he can wield a hammer for Habitat, but his actions and words are often anti-America.
But wait. He will probably be among the first to claim that there was fraud in our votes if the Democrats lose in November. (I imagine that the Democrats are already lining up their lawyers and media experts to accuse everyone but themselves in such event.)
These days I don’t trust anyone who gets a Nobel Peace Prize. Given the record of that committee, why don’t they just give the next one to Hugo Chavez?
September 10th, 2004 at 11:06 am
I’m sorry. That last post about Carter was from me, and I must have made a mistake in recording my name. I’ll take responsibility for those who want to disagree with me.
September 10th, 2004 at 11:07 am
Okay, it isn’t me. I was sure that I did it correct the second time.
–Woody McNair
September 10th, 2004 at 11:10 am
“I’m not a bit surprised. Carter falls all over himself to side with dictators.”
He sure does — Salvadoran death squads, Suharto in Indonesia, setting up the contras in Honduras. Carter has plenty of blood on his hands. Couldn’t agree more.
Could you define “anti-America”? Didn’t know we were a single, Borg-like monolith.
September 10th, 2004 at 11:11 am
The above was from santo.
September 10th, 2004 at 11:41 am
woody doesn’t have any gripes with Reagan’s embrace of Suharto, salvadoran death squads, marcos, guatemalan dictators, etc. If Carter did the same [and god forbid we suggest that carter was little different from Reagan in that regard]…all bets are off…
September 11th, 2004 at 3:15 am
Hmm … we have Jennifer McCoy’s version of events, during which they tested these supposedly-biased random number generators used for selecting polling stations to audit. It’s right there in The Economist.
But when I search for the published results of these two esteemed MIT economists (both Venezuelans, what an odd coincidence), I can’t seem to find anything.
That’s not to say that these economists are incorrect. Maybe they’ll publish soon. And that’s not to say that the Carter Center didn’t get sloppy. However, it really seems like critics of Chavez re-election want it both ways – i.e., Chavez bought the votes, but he also cheated to get them. Well, I’d say he definitely figured out how to “buy” votes: give poor Venezuelans the beginnings of the kind of social safety net we take for granted in America. And these two strategies aren’t mutually exclusive. But did he actually need to do more than that to get re-elected? If so, what’s the problem with publishing your slam-dunk case as soon as you have it?
Let’s see some NON-Venezuelans do these numbers over again. But also choose people who are equally numerate. Anybody who sees what they think are a suspicious number of identical YES votes should learn a little probability theory first.
September 12th, 2004 at 7:43 am
Carter was either stupid about allowing himself to be duped/ used to justify fraud.
Or else he knew, and is evil.
Stupid or evil; I’m afraid the USNA grad is just too “presumed innoncent” stupid. I’d guess he’d say OJ was innoncent, too.
September 12th, 2004 at 9:23 am
It would seem that Colin Powell and the Carter Center have some explaining to do.
–wow!! so not only is the extreme left Carter Center responsible for the rise of the Sodom 2 dictatorship in Venezuela, but, if we’re to understand the WSJ, the left of center Colin Powell is also responsible for the fraud of Venezuela’s equivalent of Sodom Hussein. WOW!
September 12th, 2004 at 9:24 am
What a shame the U.S. obsession with the several elections Chavez has won hasn’t been applied to Bush.
Were it so he’d never have got his foot through the Whitehouse door.
July 19th, 2006 at 10:48 pm
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July 25th, 2006 at 6:05 am
Ricardo Hausmann was part of the government that jailed Chavez in 1992.
May be a little biased, non?
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