Before The Shoe Drops
Update: [Here's the poll mentioned in the post below. It checks with what I said. Arnold's facing a total defeat in the California special election set for November 8].
I assume public attention for the next stretch, maybe a long stretch, is going to be consumed by whatever Patrick Fitzgerald announces before the end of the week. Judging by reports, it’s going to be rather dramatic.
A pity it would be, however, if the bloody crack-up of the Bush administration distracts us from the crash of another prominent pol, Arnold Schwarzenegger. So I thought I’d cram in one more post about the dismal plight of the Governator before Fitz drops the big shoe.
With only two weeks to go before a “special election” he foolishly called, Arnie just can’t dig himself out of the big, dark hole he has put himself in. I’m told that statewide polls to be released sometime Thursday will show that in spite of a $40 million ad campaign, Scwarzenegger’s favorability rating remains mired in the mid-30s. And it seems now that all of the major ballot propositions for which he called this special vote are now losing.
We’ve known for sometime now that the three initiatives at the core of his campaign -– extending his personal budget power, lengthening the time of teacher probation, and a redistricting reform— have been down in the polls. But a fourth measure, one that would strip public employee unions of making big political contributions (while leaving corporations free to do so) was ahead. No longer, according to some who have seen the embargoed polls. The anti-union Prop 75 is now beginning to sink as well. Glub glub.
It’s all pretty bad news for the Governor who is once again resorting to carefully stage-managed TV events that shield him from an increasingly discontent public.
No question that Scwarzenegger’s own political ineptitude, his dizzying squandering of what only a year ago was his enormous bi-partisan appeal, comes with the very worst timing. The former strongman did everything except fly to Siberia last week to avoid any public association with President Bush who dropped into L.A. on a cash-raising foray. Doesn’t matter, though. Arnold is paying a big price right now just for being a Republican – a moderate one or otherwise. California nowadays is about as a GOP-friendly place as Najaf would be for the Bnai-Brith. If the trendline continues, the Governor’s going to suffer a full-scale political debacle in the special election that he concocted. He will emerge from it forever hobbled and vulnerable to a Democratic challenge to his November 2006 re-election bid.
to have some fun, click here to hear me debate the head of the pro Prop 75 committee on Tuesday’s edition of the Which Way L.A. radio show. Modestly, I hand him his ass (at least so says my union organizer daughter!). When you’re done listening me to mow this guy down, take a read of Chris Nolan’s take on the Guv. She says Arnie isn’t completely down and out – at least not yet. For a radically different view, try out Andrew Gumbel’s latest column.
October 27th, 2005 at 6:55 am
I can understand Gumbel’s concerns but I think, in the end, he is weong. There are a lot of teachers and public employees in this state and they will turn out en masse to vote “NO” on these propositions. And the GOP base here has to be demoralized. The real question, to me, is whether or not Arnold will face a Right Wing challenger next year in the Primaries. Since it will be obvious thst the Governator is dead meat anyway, why not go down fighting with a “real” Conservative and not a Wilson Clone who never thrilled them anyway.
October 27th, 2005 at 11:12 am
The measure ,75, is ludicrous on its face. All union members use a check off already in their personal files. This is just a lot paperwork for nothing. They are free to change their status any time. This is more mandated fallacy promotion that the big bad unions steal members dues for political gains. In fact, the membership widely supports the practice.
I trust that’s the argument, more or less, you made Marc.
October 27th, 2005 at 11:44 am
You did.
October 27th, 2005 at 12:52 pm
In reference to that other shoe, Kevin Drum makes the point that the Miers withdrawal was probably just in time to bring the base back together to rally against Fitzgerald’s effort to take crime out of politics. They’re in a corner but like any wounded animals – especially the rabid ones – they’ll now come together and fight like hell to get out. It’s going to be quite a ride. Frankly, a fight – not an implosion – is what the Dems need in order to discover some semblance of their own backbone. Let the games begin…
October 27th, 2005 at 12:54 pm
Send in the clowns.
October 27th, 2005 at 1:40 pm
Marc, I caught your profile at http://pajamasmedia.com/pj-profiles.php and found this very interesting. I left CA a few months ago and have been on the road since, needless to say I haven’t kept up with CA politics much these days. I agree with you that prop 75 is a partisan measure to undercut funding to the left. However, regardless of how extensive it is to other parties, I believe it has the right idea. Your argument that because it does not include private unions or corporations is a bunch of childish “…soandso doesn’t have to clean his room so why should I?” it’s nonsense and results in nothing but partisan bickering. I am not sure what your position is on the so-called “Big Money” contributions to politics, and from your interview I cannot tell. Frankly, I am for cuttin all such contributions completely, in the very least I would like to see all employees, private, public, unions, whatever, given a simple yes/no decision on the matter. From your interview it sounds like you would like to see consumers given the decision of where big oil company money can go with regards to political causes. Am I wrong? I would like this too. But an attempt to pass such a measure would obviously bring up the other childish argument of “…what about the unions, how come they don’t have to do this?”. Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to say, “…well, the union already do this, now it’s your turn.” It seems pretty naive of you to believe that a measure so broad as too include all types of political contributions could ever be passed in the political game we live in these days. Things need to be done in increments, and this is a good first step. Maybe I’m wrong and we just need to all debate more like a Fox “News” sitcom. But I would rather be the bigger person and actually get things done. Wouldn’t you?
October 27th, 2005 at 3:02 pm
Kevin:
I think your prescription is political suicide, and this is something the Dems need no help with. The presence of massive amounts of money in the political system is distorting and corrupting to be sure, but why should the Dems have to give up the weapon while the other side does not? What in the world makes you think the Republicans will suddenly see the moral light on the subject? It’s unilateral disarmament. We’ll get pasted, and good. There is no turn-the-other-cheek option here. Proposition 75 is about as cynical as it gets. It wouldn’t be a good first step. It would probably make an unassailable Republican majority, which I suspect is the whole idea.
I’d love to see the money out of politics, and I think first we need to get rid of the legal notion of corporations as persons with the ability to claim constitutional rights. This is the main thing that prevents meaningful campaign finance reform. As long as that idea persists you can just forget about a politics that is not infested with corporate cash.
But let’s not quit the field just becasue we don’t like how the battle is fought.
October 27th, 2005 at 3:52 pm
True, it is political suicide. Perhaps then what we need are more politicians willing to die for a cause. I agree 100% on corporate personalities, but that is another issue for another discussion. I’m trying to say that we need to take on one thing at a time, trying to take on all the complexities at once may avoid political suicide but it is ‘causing a slow, painful societal suicide.
Why should the Dems give up their weapon? Because it is the right thing to do. The money doesn’t belong to them so they should not be allowed to have it, regardless of wether the other party is keeping theirs. We should not be fighting a war and if the Dems weren’t just as shameful as the Reps they would be able to realize this and put down their “weapons”.
Furthermore, the argument I was trying to make is that by putting down their “weapons” the Dems can make a much more legitimate argument to the PUBLIC that the Reps should do to the same. The republicans will not “see the light” as that is not the politicians role. But I belive many people will, and it is the people that the system is supposed to work for, not the poloticians.
You guys use the word cynical as if it something undesirable, yet you are being just as cynical in your response to this.
October 27th, 2005 at 4:23 pm
Even though it’s OT, I thought this quote from today’s LAT story on the Repub strategy for coping with the Fitzgerald indictments was priceless:
White House officials and allies are hoping
that intensive news coverage of the Fitzgerald
investigation will be short-lived. On Nov. 7,
they predicted, attention would shift to the
Senate confirmation hearings of Supreme Court
nominee Harriet E. Miers.
Har, har.
October 27th, 2005 at 4:35 pm
The key to the propositions (and our mayoral election in San Diego, btw) is who shows up to vote. The national issues may well have an effect on that, in that some people on the right may well be depressed and at least temporarily “turned-off” electoral politics, while others may be spurred to action. My instinct says the former. Indictments might also pump up the liberals a bit.
Opponents of individual propositions have begun to get behind “NO ON ALL OF ‘EM”, or “NO ON 73-78.”
In theory the pro-choice voters interested in defeating 73 [parental notification required before minor can obtain AB], combined with most of the teachers and members of public unions, with what private labor union members remain, combined with liberals generally, should be a strong bloc. But it only matters if everybody shows up at the polls.
Briefly on the Miers withdrawal and the next phase…this is one time you have to credit the Democratic strategy as working. You gotta chuckle at Ted Kennedy and Harry Reid defending her right to a hearing, but in fact the Dems have the right to claim the high ground here. After all, Reid is one of the few who pretty much endorsed Miers (not that he will be proclaiming that on campaign literature next time) .
It is obvious that they are trying to force Bush into a position where he is best off nominating a centrist/conservative now. I don’t think that is the way Bush will go, if either Rove or Cheney–one or both–survive the indictment/resignation storm that’s a’brewin’. They have been so battered by the right–that is, by high-minded, long-winded clerics with the big guys’ cell and home numbers–that they will just do anything to placate them.
The administration is at a turning or tipping point right now. There is a chance that Bush will retreat to the false safety of his base and his friends. There is about an equal chance that he will seek his father’s counsel, for real, probably for the first time since he accepted the imposed alliance with Cheney and his patrons. If so, we will see a stream of “old hands” from places other than Texas and other points south (Baker, Scowcroft, Gergen….) in or near the White House by the end of the year.
The hearings on the next nominee will be very interesting. If Bush nominates a person affixed with the “nihil obstat” stamp by the Christian right, I will predict that (1) s/he will not be approved; and (2) by forcing the moderate conservatives like Spector, the northeasterners like Collins and Snowe, a few midwesterners like Lugar and Hagel as well as McCain, to vote up or down on a right-wing true believer, they will start a run in the fabric of that Republican Big Tent for the first time really since Reagan. They might additionally turn off enough of the political center to switch 50 or so seats in the House, given all the other problems Bush, Frist, DeLay and the guys are experiencing and will still be experiencing a year from now.
I think Kerry’s speech at Georgetown was intended to plant the Democratic flag on Iraq, and stake out a position that others, including the Clinton array, might support. It is worth everyone’s consideration. The next couple of weeks will be very interesting.
October 27th, 2005 at 4:38 pm
This fails to take into account the unions already have a check off for dues. What they don’t have is a yearly reporting requirement which is just a bureacratic boondoggle, not to mention the thesis of shutting off political support from one side only as Marc said, and damn well too.
October 27th, 2005 at 5:21 pm
Really, Kevin? That’s the best you’ve got? We should put down are guns because it’s the right thing to do? But the guns are just how we fight, and sure, it’d be a better game if we all put down our guns but what if the other side just keeps shooting. Maybe you and I have been watching different Republican Parties for the past few years, but somehow I don’t think they’re going to start beating out plowshears.
October 27th, 2005 at 5:40 pm
No doubt I might be just hours ahead of one of your new posts for comment.
Having said that, and not living in Los Angeles I am only at this moment just interested in the forthcoming indictments, if any…….but….as well…….
Very interested in the Meir fiasco…….am sure you will be posting about that momentarily……as it is one of the best laughs I have had in the past few days….not even interested in the abject cronyism that took place, but in the entire idiocy of suggesting this person from the get go………..
October 27th, 2005 at 5:45 pm
Kerry’s speech was done to shift the shells around, he’s still for the same ol’ marc hillary cooper solution, send more troops, waste more money on the ‘war’ on terror. Kerry would send in more troops at the first chance, no different from Bush or Hillary.
October 27th, 2005 at 7:23 pm
Mark, what unions are you refering to, how EXACTLY does this process work, and what law requires this to be done. Please answer that for me before you assert these things.
Any time any political contribution is given, using a portion of my union dues, I should have to approve. There should be no strings attached ( benefits lost, extra hoops to jump through, etc ) for this right. And yes, this should be required by law even if that means some more paper work. What I hear from you is that you prefer having less paperwork in place of having accountability? Is that right? Oh we can take this there if you want.
That is the best I have got Mavis. And no, the guns being used are not for fighting, they are for ratings and egos. The other side can shoot all they want, but if they’re is no return fire, there is no show. What is the “fight” here anyway? It seems you are for nothing more than a good battle. Do you have any goals or do you just like to hit hard ( or be hit ).
Now listen to me. What I am saying is that I have a goal. It involves removing big money from politics. Accepting prop 75 will remove the use of public union dues for political causes unless specific consent of the union members is given. That, I believe, is a good thing and achieves a small step towards my goal. After this there is still much work to be done. However, and this is important, this step effectively nullifies the argument you are using right now against prop 75 when we move on to removing corporate money without consent of employees. It also legitamizes the reference for an argument that unions are no longer allowed to use funds without consent of employees, so why should corporations?
This is what I am trying to get at. But if you prefer a fight to a better world than keep on shooting your guns.
October 27th, 2005 at 9:10 pm
Well, I’ve been a member of two: Carpenter’s and currently the Screen Actor’s Guild same as the Governator. Both had a check off where you could designate if you wanted to contribute a percentage of your dues or not.
And no Kevin this proposition does nothing for our goal: Equal footing in a political fight. And even them it isn’t even close to equal.
October 27th, 2005 at 11:42 pm
Kevin:
If you want non-competitive races that the Republicans always win, a near monopoly in radio and TV time for the right during elections, the complete lack of any serious GOTV efforts, the demise of voter registration drives and constant defeat, then by all means, let’s do this as a first step. It’ll be great fun, and morally edifying to boot. As soon as the Republicans become shamed by the Dems shining virtue, then they’ll stop taking corporate cash. For your health though, I don’t recommend holding your breath. That’s what the fight is about–remaining competitive in elections.
In principle I agree, contributions should be voluntary or there should be an opt-out choice.
But you can’t be serious, regardless of your goals. This isn’t the British empire and a salt tax. The problem at hand just does not lend itself to the kind of strategy you propose. Any solution here has to be a compromise hammered out between both parties so they both feel some pain. Otherwise you might as well start looking for the Dodo bird and the Democratic party together–they’ll likely be hanging out in the same place.
October 28th, 2005 at 8:32 am
“we move on to removing corporate money without consent of employees”
Kevin, with all due respect, I believe you are the naive one here. And regarding your ultimate goal (one shared by most of us here) of removing big money from politics, if you listened to Marc on the link provided above you heard him say that a way of achieving such a goal would be to make campaigns publicly funded. That would constitute a serious proposition proposal; instead, we have a cynical attempt by Arnold’s regime to simply remove their competitors’ primary campaign funding source. Not only does this NOT represent a serious attempt to begin resolving the campaign funding abuses, but it is a bald-faced attempt to exacerbate them. Time to wake up and smell the coffee, Kevin. Naivete, indeed.
October 28th, 2005 at 8:39 am
Dan you must be mistaken me for someone who cares about which “side” has the ball. I don’t. I want the ball, I want my familly to have the ball, I don’t care which political monkey thinks they have it. You talk as if the Dems and Reps are a race of human beings. The majority of people do not fit into the extremes of the left and right and do actually have the ability to see the light, unless the extremes like you continue to convince them that there is some sort of “fight” to win.
If not being able to steal money destroys the Democratic party then so be it. We’ll destroy the republican party next. Then, according to your logic, I guess the human race will be extinct.
Mark, I see now where we are coming from very different places. I do not care about equal footing, because I believe I am on higher ground than the politicians and don’t need to reduce my values in order to compete in meaningless squabbles.
As for the check you speak of, again, what law requires that check? How often are you required to check yes or no? See, I bet there are a lot of companies out there that also do not use their employees funds for political purposes. Should we just trust all of them then and forget about the issue of corporate money in campaigns?
October 28th, 2005 at 8:46 am
If you decide the union is backing a candidate you don’t like, you can tell them to remove your contribution. The requirement is on your shoulders. Novel concept isn’t it? There is no law there are union rules ands procedures that cover this false straw man.
October 28th, 2005 at 8:53 am
The corporate money dwarfs anything labor can do. This is akin to the fallacy that the environmental groups collection of contributions is bad and on equal footing with the oil, gas, mining and timber interests. The latter is the whale swallowing a remora. It’s a false comparison.
October 28th, 2005 at 10:09 am
so then this is not a straw man at all. it is in fact an accurate characterization of your argument, that the unions already have RULES so they don’t need LAWS. well, I guess I just don’t trust the unions any more than you trust the oil companies.
how do you remove a contribution that has been donated to a politician? does that check mark force the money out of the poloticians pocket or does it just come from the union? my guess is nothing changes about the money that was already donated to a political cause, you just get a kickback from the union. that solves nothing. and it is extra work for you which should not have to be done.
now, if corporate money so dwarfs union money, then removing a small portion of the union money should not make much of a difference in “equal footing” game. however, i do believe the dems are not as broke as you make them out to be ( and all their money is most certainly not from unions alone )
the fallacy regarding environmental groups works both ways ( believing that oil contributions are inherintly bad and environmental contributions inherintly good ). this reminds me of those obsurd campaign slogans the read something like “vote yes for the happy, fun and friendly environment, no to big bad oil, vote for John Doe”. blindly contributing to an “environmental” group says nothing to what that group is actually doing or wether it will indeed be beneficial to the environment ( people are part of the environment too ya know )
what it basically comes down to is choice. i happen to agree, or think i agree with you, when it comes to environmental issues vs oil company interests. however, i reserve the right to choose this. it sounds to me like you have made a choice for yourself and so are content when people are forced to be in agreement with you, since in your mind you are in the right. If this proposition were strictly for corporations, my guess is you would have a vary different take.
October 28th, 2005 at 11:43 am
Kevin says: “If not being able to steal money destroys the Democratic party then so be it. We’ll destroy the republican party next.”
Who is this “we” you speak of that is going to be left to fight the fight? You gonna put up a website? Hand out leaflets? Have a rally? Good luck. (By the way, “steal” here is sloppy and disingenuous)
The only answer to this is public financing of campaigns and mandated air time, as Rich points out, (and the campaigns should be no more than 6 months long, if that).
It’s not extreme to want to be competitive in elections, and don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Dems are a bunch of angels. They chug from the corporate trough too, much to the detriment of those without trust funds, but if anything put the lie to the Nader claim that there is no difference between the parties, it’s been the last 5 years.
You’re acting like you can make a world free of politics, where you can reside on your “higher ground.” Politics, in its basics, hasn’t changed in the last 2,000 years and isn’t going to change anytime soon. The parties, factions, whatever, will always jockey for power and advantage, and when one side asks you to defenestrate yourself, you just have to say no. Nothing extreme here.
October 28th, 2005 at 11:51 am
“I guess I just don’t trust the unions any more than you trust the oil companies.”
Based on what? Kevin this is muddleheaded biased thinking. The rules are in place not to contribute dues in unions but they aren’t in corporations. I therefore read which one your allegiance lies loud and clear.
October 28th, 2005 at 1:33 pm
Mark, I don’t trust the unions because they have not given me a reason to. I am not a religious person and I don’t have high opinions of the blind faith model of life. Corporations are just as suspect of inquiry as well. I am not choosing sides here. It seems that your best justification for not wanting to subject the unions to oversight in this is because they are on your “side”. You don’t seem to care what they are doing as long as they are funneling money into your guys pocket, and this bothers me.
These rules you speak of, I want to know more about them. And this is not a sarcastic remark. I would appreciate it if you could point me towards some resources to research this. The problem here is that I don’t know anything about these rules, so how and why should I trust them? It seems that they are just union specific rules, created by each union as they see fit. Do ALL unions have them? Are they already required in some way by law? This is what I want to know. And as for your sweeping assertions that NO corporation has similar rules in place, well I fear you have similar research techniques on this “fact” as well. It simply does not satifsy me to know that a couple of corporations are responsible and so we should let the rest of them do what they want. This is muddleheaded thinking. Bias does not come into the matter here.
Simply asserting that “the rules are in place” does not make it ture, no matter how many times you say it. I don’t care if this is the debating technique that works for prime time news networks, it doesn’t fly with me.
To answer Dan, it seems that from Mr.Coopers analysis of the current republican party there will be no need for anyone to destroy them, since they are in an “ongoing train-wreck ” anyway. But to be serious, the “we” I speak of is the people. I do believe the majority of people are not simply party players, and not as stupid as you guys make them out to be. It is also very obvious that campaign finance issues are not just going to disappear. People WANT reform in this area and it will continue. I have no doubt that corporate finance will soon be on the platter.
You have a pretty definitive view of the wold. I don’t. Change is possible, has been happening for 2,000 years and more ( even if you can generalize centuries into meaningless similatrities that suit your argument ) and more are on there way. I believe that blogging as a media recourse will indeed change the world of politics. There are a lot of intelligent people out there discussing things in non-political oriented ways, actually thinking about things and putting ideas out there that aren’t just for political gain.
I understand how politics work. I know exactly why the Dems are aiming their guns at prop 75. It does not surprise me. But it does not in anyway justify it. It’s real easy to just call something bias and not think about it anymore. I choose to think and I won’t keep my mouth shut just because someone wants to tell me to play the game by the rules.
I think you are mistaken that Nadars claim is soo wrong. It is this notion that the world will abruptly end if one party takes an advantage over the other. It is just not so, and I do not believe that we are currently in the devistatingly hopeless state the Dems would love everyone to believe we are in. What is extreme about your position is that you can see no right without your parties approval. That is a pretty extreme way to rationalize the world.
October 28th, 2005 at 2:07 pm
“I don’t trust the unions because they have not given me a reason to.”
The problem Kevin is you’re too zealous and unwilling to do any research on your own. Why don’t you ask the unions? Go to the websites and check, e-mail the reps and so on. I’ve checked the box answering this very question while paying dues in two labor unions as I’ve said. Based on this statement, who knows more about this issue?
October 28th, 2005 at 5:37 pm
Kevin…get serious. You don’t know me, but if you did, the absurdity that I can’t think or act without my party’s approval wouldn’t issue from your keyboard.
This topic between us runs out of steam: You think I am extreme because I don’t think the Dems, flawed as they are, should self-immolate, and I think you’re a Panglossian naif for believing that corporate money is about to be on the platter, and that on this promise we should let them do what they want.
Why not just come out for public financing and in the mean time say no to all forms of bullshit tweaking at the edges, especially the tweaking designed to permanently ruin one party?
As for my comments about history. Of course there is change, lots of it. Of course things will continue to change, some good some bad. But dive into a few pages of Seutonius. I think you’ll find the similarites of the politics rather striking. I’m being realistic about the nature of politics, and you’re being, pardon me for saying it, obtuse.
October 28th, 2005 at 7:20 pm
Mark, why don’t you just ask the oil companies if they are doing their best to protect the environment? Go to their website. You seem to have a serious issue with understanding that a few examples do not constitute a solid rule across the board. Thanks for sharing absolutely nothing of your self-proclaimed broad knowledge about this supposed easy opt-out that EVERY SINGLE UNION IN CA, according to you, has. You know, you saw a check mark on your screen actors guild form, so they must all have them. Did you check that mark Mark, see what happened, how it worked? Or are you really just talking out of your ass here?
Dan the topic between us is way out of steam I agree. There is no argument here. You vote according to party lines because you read a book by Seutonius that told you to. End of discussion.
October 29th, 2005 at 8:27 am
I’m going to tell you what I eventually tell every asshole on the net. Go f-yourself. Ask them yourself you sniveling incompetent. I checked it on both unions because I supported the cause, and generally that’s the case. There aren’t many Republicans that are union members. They don’t believe in it to begin with, so it’s a false comparison as usual with fuzzy thinkers.
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