Come Back, Bob Dole
Good news.
At least for those who have to put up with me on a daily basis.
I think I'm finally coming out of my funk. You know, my post-primary, post-partum blues.
I as much as overdosed on schadenfreude, watching the prolonged, dizzying descent of the Clintons. Such an exhilarating high is bound to be followed by one helluva of a howling crash. And when it comes to the campaign, that's sort of where I've been the last few weeks since Hillary tossed in the towel. Felt like somebody slipped me a week's worth of speed followed by two tablespoons of powdered 'ludes.
But I feel better now. I'm starting to get the whiff of another rush. My nostrils are flaring. I'm smelling blood. I'm reading the latest L.A. Times poll and I see John McCain down by...oh... TWELVE POINTS! Among registered voters nationally, Obama is leading 49-37%.
Time to pile in the popcorn, fluff up the pillows on the couch and put a few brewskies on ice.
Looks like the crash and burn of the Reagan Revolution is going to be as glorious as a flaming, organish mid-summer sunset glimpsed from the cliffs of Malibu. Poor John McCain. He decided to take command of the GOP ship just as its hull was shattering.
For the past six months, there's been one hand-wringing fit after another about where-oh-where is Barack Obama going to ever get the votes necessary to win an election.
Maybe from among the 73% of voters who now say the disapprove of President Bush?
Maybe from among the 71% of voters who decline to state a "positive feeling" about the Republican Party?
Maybe from among the 78% of voters who say they don't identify themselves as Republicans?
Y'think?
This general campaign has barely started and John McCain has already flopped. I hardly think the question is whether or not he can beat Obama. It's more like, can McCain's candidacy actually survive until November?
Where's Bob Dole when you need him?
June 24th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
You’re forgetting about the terrorist attack that will happen sometime in the end of October. Surprise!
**Note to CIA/FBI/Homeland Security: I am not suggesting I will be any part of any attack that may or may not happen in October or any other month in this or any year to come.**
June 25th, 2008 at 5:19 am
First of all, I’m a betweener leaning towards the Democrats, and away from the farce of the current Presidency. My fear, is the same blindness that built GW as a “leader” called money will emerge as McCain’s momentum begins and the real ugliness of campaign smearing really heats up. I’m fearful that the American public will rally this energy, similar to a lynch mob, and vault this idiot (enter whatever idiot name on the Republican ticket) to power. I hope I’m wrong and Obama can ride the wave that we all feel right now, into victory. I think the gloves are off and the ugliness of politics are heating up. I’d vote for Bob Dole right now.
June 25th, 2008 at 6:35 am
Colin, interesting (to this conservative at any rate) that you complain about a possible Republican smear then state ” I’m fearful that the American public will rally this energy, similar to a lynch mob, and vault this idiot (enter whatever idiot name on the Republican ticket) to power.”
Heh! you guys are just too easy! (and no, I can’t stand McCain – though I may hold my nose and vote against the Obamessiah.
June 25th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Marc, save some of the popcorn and brewskies for the Obama-McCain debates. That’s when the fun really begins.
June 25th, 2008 at 8:15 am
btw the fact that GM will have to hold his nose to exercise his franchise underscores one of the points in the LA Times/Bloomberg poll Marc links to, which is that there seems to be a “passion gap” among conservatives this year: They have no one to get excited about, whereas Obama supporters rightly or wrongly are VERY excited. I am worried about people getting crushed at the polling booths.
June 25th, 2008 at 8:24 am
Oh, and this poll shows that if Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are in the race, Obama’s lead lengthens to 15 points. It would be refreshing to hear the Republicans calling Nader a spoiler for a change.
June 25th, 2008 at 8:27 am
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Newsweek gives a 15 point spread, all polls show Obama ahead.
June 25th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Get ready for the Silver Streak to come crashing through the station.
This is going to be an epic defeat for McCain–more Mondale-like in scope and implication than the conservatives care to admit.
Yes, I’m gloating, but we’ve been out of office since 1980, so I’ll indulge a bit.
June 25th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Marc: “Maybe from among the 73% of voters who now say the disapprove of President Bush?”
I’m one of those 73%, but do you think that I or people like me would vote for Obama?
- – -
Colin: “I’m fearful that the American public will rally this energy, similar to a lynch mob….”
Don’t forget that Republicans also drag black men to death behind pickup trucks.
- – -
Marc: “I’m reading the latest L.A. Times poll and I see John McCain down by…oh… TWELVE POINTS!”
Actually, that is a slim lead according to the L.A. Times on another poll.
Obama over McCain by 12 poiints: “sizable”
Opponents of Gay Marriage by 19 points: “a small margin”
- – -
Obama is a magical speaker until he doesn’t have a script. He’ll practice and practice for the debates, but he’ll slip and then refuse to debate anymore.
Still, I’m hoping for rain throughout the nation on election day. People know that Democrats won’t get out to vote if it inconveniences them. I guess the party can always resort to ballot stuffing.
June 25th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Barack Obama will not get the votes of Venus and Serena Williams.
And, did you notice that Obama is “talking white?” What racist or black militant would say that?
June 25th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Marc, have you read about Karl Rove’s comments about Obama on FOX that
“Even if you never met him, you know this guy. He’s the guy at the country club with the beautiful date, holding a martini and a cigarette that stands against the wall and makes snide comments about everyone who passes by.”?
What? I’ve been laughing for two days, it’s so funny on so many levels.
June 25th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
How nice that Obama has a 12-point lead in the polls — today. The point, however, is to have such a lead in November, eons from now in American political terms.
Democrats – sometimes known as Dummycrats – have so often proven to be geniuses at finding new ways to blow sure-fire contests, or to blow mandates when they do manage a victory.
During the next four months, much can happen. Much of it may be wretched news. Horrible as the Bush-Cheney regime has been, millions remain gullible enough to fall for the childish fantasy of straight-talking-war-hero-maverick-messiah McCain or to whine because Obama will inevitably turn out to be something less than Jesus Christ Superstar.
Beware of complacency. The Democratic Party is fully capable of becoming the Whigs of our time. If so, it should disband, instantly and forever. In the meantime, hold the bubbly until there really is something to toast.
June 25th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
GMR: “Obamessiah”
Sticks and stones, etc. etc.
And that adolescent bullshit is all you got. Don’t pinch the old nose too hard. I knew, of course, you’d cave and vote for the old coot. He’s your default “conservative” whether you like it or not. Actually, the only reason you’re holding your nose is because he’s not quite as nuts as you are…
June 25th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
KR: “…you know this guy. He’s the guy at the country club with the beautiful date, holding a martini and a cigarette that stands against the wall and makes snide comments about everyone who passes by,”
Yeah, Karl – America’s country clubs are full of black guys drinking martiinis. And Obama, of course, is inevitably that guy in the room “standing against the wall.” Unlike KR, who’s the life of every party. As for having little in one’s social arsenal other than “making snide comments”, the quote speaks for itself.
June 25th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
The focus needs to be on electing more progressives to congress at least as much as on the Presidential. I’ve been an Obama supporter – giving more and working more for any candidate than I have ever in my life – and I intend to go to either Missouri or Indiana to volunteer in October. But most of my donations are going down-ticket to progressive congressional candidates – especially in “purple” districts in swing states – from here on out. Darcy Burner is one good one. There are others that Atrios, et. al. periodically promote. I feel like I was there for Obama when it mattered and he’s gonna draw a lot of money and energy from the centrist/Hillary Dems for the general. I don’t have any illusions about the guy at this point, although I’m still a firm supporter. I just know that he can’t do a hell of a lot without a more progressive congress and grassroots political pressure – other than a much saner diplomatic strategy (and don’t expect him to withdraw from Iraq all that quickly, although he’ll move in the direction of a draw-down and put more pressure on the Iraqis to get their political shit together, if that’s possible).
Here’s a very good piece from Rolling Stone on just how fucked up the Senate Dems, in particular, are – which isn’t going to change all that much. The House is marginally better, but they’re being worn down by the creeps like Schumer and Reid in the Senate. This is definitely where the change has got to be focused – Obama’s going to be a breath of fresh air in many ways but he’s just a guy and the pressures of the Oval Office are gonna change him more than he can change it.
Anyway – while it’s nice that utter cranks, crackpots and crooks like DeLay are history so far as congressional control is concerned, here’s a sobering piece on the Dems:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/20961789/the_senate_caves/print
June 25th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
I wouldn’t make too much of a 12-point lead from any poll, especially not in June. After all, this poll shows how John and Jane Q. Public think McCain would handle Iraq better than Obama.
I think when it comes down to it, the country club test will decide everything. I mean, I know that’s the first thing I think of when I meet someone, in addition to noticing how he wears his Rolex.
June 25th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
The polls are going to go up and down like mad over the next couple of months, but I’ll put money on an 8 point win, minimum. McCain is a dried out dish towel.
But reg is also right, the Democratic party is broken. If FISA can pass with scarcely a word, the old theory about two wings of the property party is more right than I feared. Go Al Franken!
June 25th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Dan – I still hold that there are two wings to the Democratic party and Obama’s primary victory and the rise of the netroots and fundraising grassroots as a force hold the key to longterm change within the party. No easy victories. No “messiahs.” But a modicum of hope. My shorthand has always been that the GOP is, metaphorically, an instrument of the Devil, while the Democratic party represents the too-human struggle between “good” and “evil” – i.e. our better qualities in tenuous balance with our lesser. It’s on us to leverage the better. Obama isn’t the answer – and I don’t believe he makes that claim – but “Yes we can!” points in the right direction. We’re not on the verge of “revolution” – even in social democratic terms – but there are some good signs and folks seem some combination of fed up and ready for (modest) chanbe. At this point, though, I think we have the lucury of viewing the Chuck Schumers as our biggest problem.
‘
June 25th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Uh…that would be “modest change”
June 25th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
“luxury” not “lucury”
June 25th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
From the UK Guardian – Obama’s iPod:
The Stones’ track Gimme Shelter topped his favourite songs from the band.
His selection also contained 30 songs from Dylan. “One of my favourites [for] the political season is [Dylan's] Maggie’s Farm. It speaks to me as I listen to some of the political rhetoric.”
In the song, Dylan sings about trying to be himself, “but everybody wants you to be just like them”.
The jazz legends Miles Davis, John Coltrane and Charlie Parker were also included in the compilation.
Many of the musicians on Obama’s iPod, such as Bruce Springsteen, are supporting his White House bid.
Earlier this month, Dylan said he believed Obama was redefining politics in the US and could bring change to a nation in upheaval.
“I’ve got to say, having both Dylan and Bruce Springsteen say kind words about you is pretty remarkable,” Obama said. “Those guys are icons.”
Obama said he had not met Springsteen but that the two had talked over the phone.
“Not only do I love Bruce’s music, I just love him as a person,” Obama said. “He is a guy who has never lost track of his roots, who knows who he is, who has never put on a front.”
He added that, when speaking to the singer, he addressed him by his moniker the Boss. “You’ve got to,” Obama said.
The candidate said he thought rap music was also helping to break down barriers within the music world. Indeed it was reported last month that Obama will make a cameo performance on the rap singer Q-Tip’s next album.
However, he expressed concern over his daughters – Malia, nine, and Sasha, seven – listening to some rap songs.
“I am troubled sometimes by the misogyny and materialism of a lot of rap lyrics,” he said, “but I think the genius of the art form has shifted the culture and helped to desegregate music.”
June 25th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
I’m surprised Obama doesn’t have “Looking for a Leader” from Neil Young’s 2006 Living With War album, in which there is a lyric (before any presidential talk) “Maybe it’s Obama, but he says that he’s too young”
And it is significant that Dylan made a direct (electoral) political statement, something he rarely does.
That said, Maggie’s Farm spoke to Scargill more than anyone else – far before the miner’s strikes against Maggie.its a song from the perspective of a worker against various aspects of capital. And Gimme Shelte is a song eplicitly supportign the NLF.
Good taste, as I’d expect. Obama used to go to Dead shows in the late 80s and I’m not too many degrees of separation from him (or serious Deadhead Ann Coulter, who dated a friend of mine and lover her LSD)
June 25th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Reg-
that said, don’t delude yourself into thinking Obama is from the progressive wing of the party. He’ll surely give these people a “Seat at the table” and more than Bill, but he’s mroe in the league of the Canadian Liberal Party or Australia’s Labour – left of “third way” right of progressive. And his stupid statement on Jerusalem provoked immediate building plans, which Condoleeza Rice, busy brokering talks with Hezbollah, had to demand be halted. Imagine, the current Bush State Department is objectively to the left of Obama or McCain on foreign policy.
June 25th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Our genial host has underestimated the de[th of McCain’s problems. If you go over to a website like DAILY KOS or MYDD its grim reading indeed for the GOP. In no state does McCain have more than a ten point lead and, right now, Obama leads in enough states to collect 281 EVs right now. Further he is withing striking distance (5 points or less) in places like Mississippi and South Carolina!
I’m with Reg, the big thing this year will be turnout and the chance for progressive Dems to gain Senate and House Seats is probably higher than any time since 1964. But I’m not sure I’d place all the onus on the Senate Dems for weasling out. Those of us who wanted Jack Murtha for Majority Leader can now say “We told you so” after watching Steny Hoyer cave and cave again. But as someone said – more and better Dems is the answer. We’re getting the more and now its time for the better. A lot of dough is being raised on the net and I expect some real challenges in 2010 to some DINOs who think they know better.
June 25th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Dan O could be right that the polls will go up and down over the coming months, except that this is not actually the trend at all recently. Check out the trend here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
You will note that McCain has not outpolled Obama in any major poll since April, not one. The rollercoaster effect, to the extent there was one, was much earlier. It will take a lot for McCain to catch up, which doesn’t mean he couldn’t.
June 25th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
I have to give Harry Reid a bit more credit than I did – apparently he’s pledged to vote against the FISA bill with telecom immunity. (Although I’m wondering if this is a bit of a dodge as he also avoids leading any serious Senate challenge to block it. This does put him to the “left” of Obama – who none-too-surprisingly has opposed immunity but will “compromise” and not vote against the total package.)
June 25th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Apparently these are the only Senators we can trust with the Bill of Rights:
Biden (D-DE)
Boxer (D-CA)
Brown (D-OH)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Dodd (D-CT)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feingold (D-WI)
Harkin (D-IA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Sanders (I-VT)
Schumer (D-NY)
Wyden (D-OR)
Notably, no Obama, and not notably, nary a single Republican. The party is broken indeed.
June 25th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Obamessiah! LOL, reg, you have no room to talk as you are no doubt the most filthy mouthed individual ever to grace these sheets and more than one sage has said that a filthy mouth is proof of the poverty of any argument.
I hope you have noticed that the Gallup daily has Obama and McCain tied. I know, I know you don’t think much of daily tracking polls or of Gallup unless of course they show your whiz kid ahead then you trumpet it to the sky.
You will also note, that I said I may vote AGAINST the Obamessiah which I could easily do by voting for Nader, for Barr or Hell, I might even write in YOUR name… nah, I’m not that nuts.
Reg, the only adolescent here is you. Live with it dude!
June 25th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Obama now disagreeing with the USSC on the execution of Child Rapists and says that in narrow circumstances the states should be able to excute child rapists. Doubtless he is pandering to the nasty right wingers (except me of course, I think the death penalty is wrong in all cases – but sometimes I argue with myself over cases like mass murder such as bin Laden or folk like that – I notice that when I lose that argument, I still win it)… my my my, the empty suit saying “kill, kill” Is some of the shine off of his halo now reg?
June 25th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Nice little entry, Marc. Thanks too, Mr. Roper & Dan O for making the comments section very enjoyable reading.
Already a 12 point spread. Sweet.
“Time to pile in the popcorn, fluff up the pillows on the couch and put a few brewskies on ice.”
My sentiments exactly. I hope I’m not jinxing Sen. Obama, but I’ve already started planning my election night party (which will be, no doubt, a spirited defense of the 21st Amendment). The working theme seems to be settling on something like “270 electoral beers on the wall.” You coming over, Woody, or what? I promise to have the U of Alabama fight song cued up… But don’t be surprised if you hear an altered version of “Hail to the Victors” — “Hail to Obama…”
Between now and then, let’s start making a better Democratic Majority that can get something done!
L’chaim.
June 25th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Well, I don’t like to praise anyone, but reg is absolutely on target and dead right in this thread…making the congress effectively progressive is even more important than working for Obama (update: my father here in Kansas – very far to the right – thinks that McCain will be pounded come November).
“Ann Coulter, who dated a friend of mine and loved her LSD”
I figured there was a reason for her dumbass beliefs…
June 26th, 2008 at 6:24 am
What a difference a day makes…and a poll that isn’t weighted heavily with Democrats and young people, like that used by Marc.
Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%
June 26th, 2008 at 7:07 am
The silly stuff aside (which just gets sillier) it’s been long known that Obama isn’t an anti-death penalty absolutist in extreme cases – but he’s done as much if not more than any politician in the country to put the brakes on it with his legislative efforts in the Illinois senate.
Of course, he could have been a true moral giant and sat around having conversations about this with himself.
I love it when “conservatives” with absolutely no coherent moral compass – such as creeps who thought it was just a grand idea to invade Iraq and unleash holy hell on that already damaged country – apply their high and mighty ethical standards to liberals. Of course this is the ultimate, utterly cynical straw man – because they’d rather run against some iteration of Ralph Nader or Dennis Kucinich – or in this case, of course, Michael Dukakis – than get their asses handed to them in the real world.
Obama is against the death penalty in all but “extreme cases” and believes that states should have the right to define child rape as such. I don’t agree, but frankly it’s not a biggie with me. I’m against the death penalty for pragmatic, not intrinsically moral, reasons. The impulse to kill someone who would rape a child is, frankly, one I share. The question of the state stepping in to do it is a rather more complicated issue and I’m against it.
Roper’s “Obamessiah” nonsense is another example of him having a conversation in his own head with an imaginary opponent. Anyone who actually has read what I’ve ever said here about Obama would know that’s not even close to my assessment of the guy – although on a relative scale to what Roper’s been trying to sell us as Leader of the Free World against the Forces of Evil over these past years – any incoherence on his part regarding Obama’s comparable merits, intellect and leadership skills is understandable.
June 26th, 2008 at 7:14 am
As to polls, the best guide is here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
These are the polling averages, which put Obama up about 7 points. And, yes, it’s a long way to November – four exciting months that I’m genuinely looking forward to.
June 26th, 2008 at 7:20 am
Dan – I have to say I’m surprised to see Schumer on that list. He and, marginally, Reid were both better on this one than I’d expected.
June 26th, 2008 at 7:26 am
Good strategic analysis of the impact of polls at this point:
http://www.ruralvotes.com/thebackforty/?p=141
June 26th, 2008 at 7:54 am
Oh goody, 4 consecutive posts from reg in only 19 minutes. Almost a record perhaps.
Hey reg, I’ll pretend I’m a progressive like you for a nano-second: go fuck yourself!
June 26th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Obama’s campaign is being run by the well oiled and highly efficient well Chicago Politically Machine.
Obama’s (David Axelrod’s) rambling statement about his (The Machine’s) position on the death penalty is a clear attempt to inoculate him from a Micheal Dukakis moment if ask what he would do if someone raped his daughters.
Obama is a Chicago leftist. If not prepped properly, he surely would have used lawyerese to answer this sort of question, just like Dukakis. Hell, he uses lawyerese to describe what he would do if terrorists rape America again.
In other words, with two children and running for President, requiring at least some votes from the common sensed masses, you just cannot be against the death penalty for child rapists.
His (Axelrod’s) statement regarding how he is going to be politically attacked “he’s too young, too inexperienced,……and black” was another planned preemption to try to inoculate him from legitimate political issues of his age, inexperience, his black centric background, and his feisty, read that activist, wife.
In fact, you will notice if you watch closely, Barack regularly gets into trouble when in a venue, debates, townhall meetings, that require off the cuff unplanned responses. This is because, just like other leftists the Democrats have run for President, Obama is a leftist at heart and it is very difficult to hide your core inclinations on core issues with finessed answers that don’t sound like your trying to have it both ways. or even worse in Dukakis’s case, look like an almost inhuman lawyer lacking in common sense emotion.
June 26th, 2008 at 11:44 am
While I’mn busy fucking myself, Roper might find this discussion with Bob Barr useful in helping him make up his mind how he might best “vote against Obama.”
http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/12251?in=00:01:25&out=00:10:24
June 26th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Bob Barr looks more black than Obama.
June 26th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Hey, I went back to the link that reg provided and that woman interviewing Barr keeps falling off to sleep. Seriously.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:05 am
I’m convinced now that the only viable vote for me will be to write reg’s name in.
For President: Party: Looney left Choice “REG”
June 27th, 2008 at 11:16 am
I guess this blows Cynthia McKinney’s chances…
June 27th, 2008 at 11:28 am
I remember that in the 70s (or 80s?) Nader or someone working for him made a somewhat similar racial remark. Nader or his associate was fighting in DC for some environmental or safety cause, and proceeded to censure an African American officeholder who wasn’t taking the desired position, saying something to the effect that a Black person should surely have an understanding of oppression and the abuse of power.
This caused a stir.
More generally, one aspect of sixties/post-sixties hippie liberalism/leftism I would definitely not want to see revived is that era’s pervasive sense of the boundaries of authentic Blackness–many Whites then were fully comfortable with remarking on whether a Black person was Black enough.
June 27th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Jim R -
Wouldn’t you say that when most politicians (from left to right) get in trouble, it’s because of “off the cuff unplanned responses”. It’s in the nature of ‘unplanned responses’ to pose problems. That’s why so many pols avoid them and end up sounding like robots. I don’t think Obama has any special problem here.
June 27th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
The “reg” party:
Really
Enlarged
Government
July 1st, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Has anyone mentioned the Grover Norquist (don’t know why, but I always think of him as Norville Norquist) crack calling Obama `John Kerry with a tan’?
July 20th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
gm pickup trucks…
Sounds interesting but not for every one….
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