Drifting in the Darkness
It's late Sunday night and just got back home after driving in from Las Vegas (yes, it was for work).
It was a pretty spooky experience driving through the pitch black desert and listening to the radio about how the hills just a few clicks north of my home were ablaze. And how I was speeding through the night right toward the inferno (As I'm going to bed I'm told our area is safe but the howling Santa Ana winds rattling my window are of little comfort).
When I couldn't take anymore of the on-the-spot fire reporting over AM radio, I switched over to the XM C-Span radio feed and then I really found hell -- a rebroadcast of this afternoon's Republican Presidential Debate directly from Orlando. What an appropriate venue because as I heard the disembodied voices of the candidates coming in through the darkness I felt that they might as well be drifting in from some dank corner of Disney World -- like, maybe, from Never Never Land.
At least the verbal sparring about who exactly was the most conservative kept me awake and often laughing out loud. I don't get what all the arguing is about. Why don't they just dig up dear departed Uncle Ronnie and let him appoint his political heir? Having a dead man do the picking seems totally befitting as I am more or less convinced that whoever is actually chosen will also be DOA next November.
I carry no water for the Democrats, as many of you know, but these fellas who were up on the stage demonstrated no self-awareness of the peril they face, the peril of political extinction come next year.
Sure, one must play to one's hard-core ideological base in order to win a party nomination and then move toward the center in the general election. At least, that's the standing CW. But I still got the impression that Giuliani, Thompson, McCain and Romney ( not to mention the joke fringe candidates like Hunter and Tancredo) are clueless as to how out of step they have become with our national reality. Having all made their careers precisely in the era of the Reagan Revolution they are like trained seals tightly limited to the one basic script: LOTS of fear mongering, lots of ball-clanking swagger, a faux little-guy populism while promoting the economic interests of the super-elites, and the usual mix of sermons about God, Guns and Gays.
No one seemed to notice that the Reaganite Thermidor already transpired. I date it to the Katrina catastrophe. But you could mark the end point just about anywhere you please over the last 3-4 years: the invasion of Iraq, the bungled occupation, Abu Ghraib, the open endorsement of torture, the congressional bribery scandals, the congressional sex scandals, the congressional prayer vigil for Teri Schiavo, the NSA spying, the afterlife tenure of Alberto Gonzales...need I go on? The revolution will no longer be televised because the revolution is over. Trying to conjure up and embody Reagan's spirit this year is about as politcally savvy as wandering the streets of Sarkozy's Paris dressed up as Robespierre. When it's over, it's over and there's no going back.
I woud guesstimate that there's still maybe 30% of the electorate who get their panties wet listening to tough talk deriding capuccino liberals, Vermont queers, secular humanists, and Defeatocrats. About the same percentage whose heart rate quickens when the millionaire candidates vow to abolish abortion, expunge pornography, kill the Death Tax, and lift all restrictions on automatic weapons while guaranteeing total victory in Iraq -- and Iran.
But that would leave about 70% of the electorate who's just plain tired of all this crud. They actually want answers and solutions to their own life problems -- jobs, medical care, education-- rather than scoldings on how other people choose to live. Everything said on stage tonight has been said ten thousand times over the last twenty years and the disgruntled, the uncertain and the dissastified electorate has stopped listening.
Only Mike Huckabee evidenced any notion that at least the tone and temperature of current conservative discourse must either re-calibrate or else melt-down (making him, I think, potentially the most worrisome candidate for the Dems to face).
Everything in me senses that the Republicans are on the verge of a lonesome, wandering and prolonged trek through the political desert -- much like the exile into Nowhere that brain-dead Dumbocrats commenced in 1980.
Listening to that debate tonight I was reminded of a great story my friend Patrick Caddell once told me while we were traveling in Russia (Pat was the whiz kid pollster for McGovern and a top strategist and advisor to Jimmy Carter. He also worked on several other Democratic presidential campaigns before retiring from the biz in the early 90's).
The story dates back to the 1984 Mondale campaign against Reagan. On the night that Mondale accepted the nomination at the Democratic convention, Pat (who was advising the party) was in the front row of the crowd on the convention floor. At a certain point in his acceptance speech, Mondale said "yes," if elected, he would raise taxes. Phrasing it like an applause line, the crowd roared its approval. Little matter, it seemed to Mondale that --right or wrong-- this was completely contrary to the prevailing national mood.
At the precise moment of that ovation, Pat noticed the red light pop on atop a network TV camera pointed directly at him. "I was sick to my stomach," he told me. "I knew right then and there we had already lost the election. But with the camera on me I just smiled as wide as I could and waved my little American flag in my hand as if Mondale was some sort of genius. But I knew it was all over."
That same sick feeling that overcame Caddell must have been felt tonight by at least some Republican viewers of the debate. They had to know in their hearts that the candidates were right, alright. So far right that they were doomed.
October 22nd, 2007 at 12:44 am
Marc, your reasoning seems so right about this–er, sorry, I mean correct. But why do I still have this queasy feeling in my stomach? It’s because history shows that the Democratic leadership would rather lose elections than really challenge the corporate elite that funds both them and the Republicans. A Hillary Clinton victory is far from assured, for that and so many other reasons.
October 22nd, 2007 at 1:09 am
“… about 70% of the electorate … tired of all this crud … actually want answers and solutions to their own life problems — jobs, medical care, education– rather than scoldings on how other people choose to live.”
True enough. Check this page:
http://www.pollingreport.com/prioriti.htm
#1: Iraq
#2: “jobs/economy” and “health care”
“Terrorism” and “immigration” are stuck in the single digits in a number of polls. “Terrorism” ranks higher when it’s specifically mentioned by the pollsters, drifts lower when not. But “Morals/Family values” and “Abortion” have only low-single-digit mentions.
“Only Mike Huckabee evidenced any notion that at least the tone and temperature of current conservative discourse must either re-calibrate or else melt-down (making him, I think, potentially the most worrisome candidate for the Dems to face).”
Search on Youtube under Huckabee and watch a little. Then search on Giuliani and just skim the titles and summaries — he’s getting hit hard. Huckabee’s obviously got a kind of conservative-base netroots groundswell going for him.
Another smooth-talkin’, humorous, charismatic, ex-Arkansas governor running for President, seemingly coming out of nowhere … but from the Right, this time? That would at least be *interesting*, especially if we got see him go mano-a-(wo)mano with Hillary in debate, with the camera flicking over to Bill’s face now and then, as he cringes and thinks, “Oh, I could have handled this guy *so* much better than Hill — I’m from where’s *he’s* from, I can see his moves coming a mile away”.)
In my populism index (ratio of campaign finance under and over $2000), Huckabee is toward the middle of the pack, evidence that Big Money appreciates sales skill. Not that he’s raised a lot of money — the now-departed Brownback had a lot more. But having more money only moves you a few percentage points at best. He could surprise everyone in the primaries.
October 22nd, 2007 at 3:31 am
You might be right, but remember Harry Truman, Tom Dewey, and the “do nothing 46th Congress.” Congress is at 11% approval.
The public hates politicians at the moment, and Bush is soon to be history.
First President who sits down to pee. First President whose name ends in a vowel. Foreign policy by Sandy Berger the thief. Foreign policy by Norman Podhoretz, the Mad Bomber.
Take your pick. Or stock up on pemmican and head for the hills.
October 22nd, 2007 at 7:36 am
“Reaganite thermidor”
excellent.
I’m genuinely concerned though, that if the heat keeps getting turned up/and/or an attack on Iran, it will be Hillary vs. Guiliani, and they will agree wholeheartedly on hawkishness, in fact both trying to outflank the other on the right, with Guiliani winning through more support from somel obby groups.
October 22nd, 2007 at 9:03 am
Am I being too thin skinned, or is the possibility of a female President subliminally threatening? Or, both?
Marc: …still maybe 30% of the electorate who get their panties wet listening to tough talk…
Surely some of that 30% wear boxer shorts or briefs?
Grumpy: First President who sits down to pee.
Wouldn’t it have been just as defining to note, First President to wear a pants suit? Setting skirts, pumps, and nylon stockings aside since Rudy’s cross-dressing occasion seems to be well reported.
October 22nd, 2007 at 9:58 am
I don’t know enoough (and frankly don’t care to know enough about the candidates to wonder if they sit down to pee. Hell, for all I know, Hillary may be the only one who stnds to pee.
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:09 am
Great post. I watched some of the TPM recap and I loved the part where Chris Wallace asked Mitt Romney whether Hillary was fit to be commander in chief. When Romney joked with the audience and said he wouldn’t vote for her, Wallace came back again with a “don’t you dodge the question” attitude and rethrew his softball query. Certainly a fitting team of interlocutors for the hapless candidates.
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:13 am
(Out of bad taste) I’m pretty sure FDR sat down to pee…
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:37 am
Marc,
Here’s the short version of the debate: http://tinyurl.com/yubxta
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:54 am
Marc,
I visit your site often although I rarely comment anymore (see Woody’s comments from last week) but I have to say that I was surprised by the tone of your latest entry. The congressional bribery scandals (William Jefferson) and congressional sex scandals (Bill Clinton) are not limited to the Republicans nor is the reference to “millionaire candidates.” You then label the Republicans as “trained seals tightly limited to the one basic script: … and the usual mix of sermons about God, Guns and Gays.” It is certainly not unusual for the candidates to play up to their own parties in the primaries and any unkind Republican could just as easily level the same complaint at the opposition. Your normally outstanding writing seems diminished by these simplifications.
I experience many of the same feelings you mentioned when I listen to the Democratic candidates discuss their issues. Mainly that they are totally out of touch with hard working, middle class families that are tired of paying for bloated, mismanaged, preferential government programs. There are a lot of moderate republicans out there and they – like me – fall into the “70% of the electorate who’s just plain tired of all this crud. They actually want answers and solutions to their own life problems — jobs, medical care, education.” We just don’t believe that our answers and solutions involve handing over control of our money and our lives to the federal government so that they can take care of us.
Keep up the good work and thanks for not deep sixing the blog. I’m going to keep reading even though I thought this piece not worthy of your talent. I guess it’s a compliment that I’m holding you to some higher standard.
October 22nd, 2007 at 12:20 pm
I agree with Michael Turner about Huckabee. He has a way of making some quite right positions seem palatable. He is indeed a great salesman.
I caught a little of Mitt Romney’s act on CSPAN. It is interesting to see the candidates modulate their presentations for the crowd….Mitt had a faux warmth, a concerned-parent vibe, that modulated his usual Chamber of Commerce triumphalist 21st century Babbittry. He announced his opposition to internet porn, summoning courage to confront fierce pro-First Amendment sentiments of the Christian far right.
October 22nd, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Excellent post, Marc. Evidently, the republicans haven’t learned much from the 1992 RNC Convention.
October 22nd, 2007 at 6:34 pm
I too enjoyed your French revolutionary analogies, complete with months. If you like that passion, read Emile Zola’s Germinal and see the excellent 1990s movie. Real workers, real class struggle. Real defeat.
I also have been a fan (if there my be such a term )of Pat Caddell since before i was a teen. Matt Bai’s book ( thanks for the tip Marc) has a very funny anecdote about Pat , who is– as usual, prescient and trenchant. I spent much of the time at Book Soup in WeHo asking Matt about Pat!
On to the Republicans.
Yes, you’re right, about that party of First and Second Estate fossils, Marc, but the Democrats have so little to say, we might end up with the 5th of Brumaire. and after that First Consul and Empire (Hillaryleon I, but with crappier troops)
I”m stocking up on pemmican. and anyone coming to my Halloween party on Saturday will be assessed on suitability for hill climbing. That’s how bad it looks.
October 22nd, 2007 at 7:12 pm
Robespierre. Pemmican. Words rarely seen in print any more, let alone in the same post. End times?
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:50 pm
Very cool comments Sergio. Liked Marc’s column better on 2nd read. Thanks
Rookie to EZ. Short ways into L’assommoir.
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:38 pm
“Congress is at 11% approval.”
Not quite that low, but still shockingly low.
http://www.pollingreport.com/congress.htm
With Bush still holding veto power over almost any congressional move he doesn’t like, I think we’re in for little more than a numbing stream of non-binding resolutions from now until Jan 2009. You know the kind I mean:
“It’s possible that Ellen deGeneres is an irresponsible pet owner”,
“J.K. Rowling might or might not have been unacceptably indiscreet in exposing Dumbledore’s sexual orientation”,
“Doctors probably shouldn’t bum us out by reporting that peoples’ attitudes toward their cancer fight has no effect on their prognosis, and how about warming up the stethoscope a little before planting it on our chests?” ….
…. just a name a few burning issues ripped from today’s headlines. B Spears and K Federline? Not goin’ there, it’s *way* too hot with likely voters right now. How about declaring “National Pemmican Week”? No oxen gored with that sort of bold legislation, one would hope.
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:07 am
Thank goodness we were finally treated with a professionally run and ‘presidential’ debate. No more childish YouBoobs please.
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:46 am
Professional ? This crap ?
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/10/22/gop-debate-appealing-to-the-24ers/
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:47 am
“I spent much of the time at Book Soup in WeHo asking Matt about Pat!”
Oh christ…
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:08 pm
I was referring to the debate itself reg. But, as I remember, Luntz did a focus group with all democrats on Fox’s coverage of a democratic debate also.
I would hope at least you would be ‘fair and balanced’ enough to admit the level of hate for Bush by the left-wing in the Democratic party is really hard to outdo.
The party sane need to keep the insane happily rocking on the party back porch, just visiting them often enough to check their straight jackets……..and empty drool cups. Occasionally we fail.
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:14 pm
Oh, and collect ballots of course, the only reason for putting up with the insanity at all…. and the only good reason I’m against euthanasia.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:19 am
Teen Teens For Cash Nudist Teens…
I can not agree with you in 100% regarding some thoughts, but you got good point of view…