Escalation
So much for that. What bombing pause? Israel’s security cabinet has approved an escalation of the ground war in Lebanon.
That “extra week” the Israelis had reportedly asked for from the Bush administration has come and gone and we now stand poised on the brink of a widened war.
The fear now, at least my fear, is that the talked-about comprehensive settlement proposal that Condi Rice is supposed to now bring to the UN will be precisely the opposite i.e. a framework so impossible to implement that it will actually be the pretext for more fighting.
The Israeli strategy seems, at best, to be one of going full steam ahead in pounding Lebanon, unfettered and unrestrained. Only when Israel is exhausted will it step back and dump the clean-up and post-attack policing to the still-unformed multi-national force.
I say at best because there are, of course, much worse options still on the the table. Has was we’ve seen up to now only been the overture for some still-to-be-played grand, booming symphony: taking the war into Syria?
The Syrians now seem to think so as they mobilize their armed forces. I’ve long thought the Bush administration was bluffing on Syria. It knows it doesn’t have the troops, the money or the domestic political support to send troops into Damascus. But what about letting the Israelis do it for us?
How tempting this might be for an administration whose own Iraqi policy is now drowning in sectarian blood. Tell me, please, what else does this administration have to run on for the November elections? It no longer has any visible domestic agenda. Does it?
Its arguments about “staying the course” in Iraq have become noisome. But what about a nice, all-out regional Middle Eastern War in which we don’t have to do anymore fighting than we are now? And a war that the Democrats, for the most part, have already endorsed? Sounds like a pretty good electoral strategy to me. You know, like this is no time to change horses.
July 31st, 2006 at 10:08 pm
Not necessarily an escalation Marc. Yesterday was the lowest number of Hezbollah rockets to hit Israel in the last couple of weeks.
Less than 10 missiles made it into Israel.
July 31st, 2006 at 11:10 pm
Exactly why there were fewer Hezbollah rockets yesterday is not clear, and since it isn’t it would be a mistake to draw any conclusions from it.
August 1st, 2006 at 12:12 am
No conclusions were being drawn. There were fewer rockets yesterday, hence a de-escalation.
August 1st, 2006 at 1:06 am
It would appear the meaning of the bombing pause is, “You’ve got 48 hours to get the rest of the women and children out of the way.”
August 1st, 2006 at 1:08 am
“But what about a nice, all-out regional Middle Eastern War in which we don’t have to do anymore fighting than we are now?”
Honestly, it’s what I heard again tonight from my D.C.-located Middle East watcher friends. The moderates in the region—Egypt and the Saudis in particular— are making grim statements, warning the US and Israel to avoid proceding any farther…. in stronger terms than I ever remember hearing in the last 20 years. So what backdoor drum beats are they sensing?
All this and Syria on alert and Assad telling his army to prepare for “regional challenges”…..after Israel calls up 30,000 reserves.
Not good.
One wonders, BTW, if Condi is entirely in the loop.
August 1st, 2006 at 1:47 am
“One wonders, BTW, if Condi is entirely in the loop.”
At the very least she seems in over her head on this one.
I listened to the Chris Dickey interview on NPR, thanks for that tip rosedog (he is a local boy here in Paris, so know him.) I thought it was quite good and evenhanded, and required listening for those who think that Israel is on the right course.
August 1st, 2006 at 10:29 am
As I said yesterday this is starting to look a lot like 1914. Oh, what a lovely War!
August 1st, 2006 at 12:03 pm
OT, but too good to miss. Oy! That Hindsight!
http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleid.17815/article_detail.asp
August 1st, 2006 at 1:49 pm
And yes gueriilas hide among populations. but Israel did bomb roads before people could flee, then committed enough harassment to make the difficult passage dangerous. Many have no choice but to stay in the region.
The tactics of the terrorists aside and Hezbullah is ugly, the cowardnice banner so far goes does go to Israel. They have refused to advance on defended positions because they might get hurt, they insist on artillery and airplanes. They retreated from Lebanon while failing to reduce the rocket barrage much less break Hezbullah.
Of course they may start again, we shall see. But this attack does threaten the democracy in Lebanon we wer boasting of not long ago and the Lebanese people feel we will not defend, it has increased Syria’s influence in Lebanon and alienated allies. And remember this the American people will support Israel thorugh dead children, but not 5 dollar gas.
There was widespread support for an attack against the 3,000 or so militia in southern Lebanon and maybe into the Bekka Valley. Despite 10 to 1 odds Israel has refused this fight and engaged in attacks that cripple the country.
There are pragmatic consequences for this and I don’t think they will be good. This is like Iraq. Yes we are morally superior to the enemy, but that doesn’t prevent it from being a disaster that we are in the middle of, one with possibly long term consequences of the undesirable sort.
From:
http://tacitus.org/comments/2006/7/30/175016/439/67#67
August 1st, 2006 at 2:24 pm
Richard, your point about 1914 is something I have been thinking, too. The only real precedent for something as small as the kidnaping of 2 soldiers sparking a worldwide conflagration is the assassination that set off a chain of events that resulted in the death of 10 million in WWI, not to mention the consequent social and political turbulence that led to WWII.
August 1st, 2006 at 6:57 pm
There actually is a connection between Mel Gibson and the madness in the Middle East. All day today I saw one right-wing Jew after another (Prager, Medved) defend Gibson and call for his redemption. Why? Well Mel is real popular with the religious wackos that vote GOP and who are now more Zionist than Hertzl. Of course they support Israel because you can’t get the rapture started until the Jews start that big war called Armageddon and perish (except for 100,000 I believe) and then Jesus comes back, Hallelluhah! The people I mention don’t believe this tripe for a second but they do support Israel – or at least a Likud version of the same that can run amock in the area. In private I bet Dennis Prager is as contemptuous of these yahoos as I am but they make “Useful Idiots” just the same. So if Gibson blurts out the truth of his beliefs (in vino veritas, guys) well lets ignore it so the mouth breathers don’t get upset with us.
Here is a real case the enemy of my enemy crap. Talk about self-hating Jews!
August 1st, 2006 at 7:13 pm
Richard,
They should talk to his father. The wacko apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Here’s some wingnut dishonesty to feast your eyes on.
August 1st, 2006 at 7:41 pm
I saw that too Randy. But maybe they didn’t misquote Dingell. Maybe they can’t read.
August 1st, 2006 at 7:45 pm
Just a couple of small questions:
Some say because Israel gave fair warning to the Lebanese civilians to flee, that this means it is now fair game to carpet bomb South Lebanon – does this mean that if Hizbollah gives advanced warning to all the people in Haifa to flee, that it is ok to fire missles there?
In 1948 the Arabs threatened to “sweep the Jews into the sea.” Does this mean that it would have been ok to do so to those who did not heed the warning and remained?
Inquiring minds would like to know….
May 9th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
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