Georgia On My Mind
So you think John Edwards’ timing of his confession — on the Friday night before the Olympics– was shrewd? Well, then, how about them Russians?
Valdmir Putin is many things but he ain’t a panty-waist liberal. He’s unleashed a hellish full-scale war against the former Soviet republic of Georgia and the casualties are already mounting.
Count among them the credibility and regional clout of the United State of America. In a searing analysis in The New York Times, C.J. Chivers writes of the contributing factors and the likely consequences of this conflict:
They included the Kremlin’s military successes in Chechnya, which gave Russia the latitude and sense of internal security it needed to free up troops to cross its borders, and the exuberant support of the United States for President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, a figure loathed by the Kremlin on both personal and political terms.
Moreover, by preparing Georgian soldiers for duty in Iraq, the United States appeared to have helped embolden Georgia, if inadvertently, to enter a fight it could not win.
American officials and a military officer who have dealt with Georgia said privately that as a result, the war risked becoming a foreign policy catastrophe for the United States, whose image and authority in the region were in question after it had proven unable to assist Georgia or to restrain the Kremlin while the Russian Army pressed its attack…
imultaneously, as the contest of wills between Georgia and Russia intensified, the strong support of the United States for Mr. Saakashvili created tensions within the foreign policy establishment in Washington and created rival views.
Some diplomats considered Mr. Saakashvili a politician of unusual promise, someone who could reorder Georgia along the lines of a Western democracy and become a symbol of change in the politically moribund post-Soviet states. Mr. Saakashvili encouraged this view, framing himself as a visionary who was leading a column of regional democracy movements.
Other diplomats worried that both Mr. Saakashvili’s persona and his platforms presented an implicit challenge to the Kremlin, and that Mr. Saakashvili made himself a symbol of something else: Russia’s suspicion about American intentions in the Kremlin’s old empire. They worried that he would draw the United States and Russia into arguments that the United States did not want.
Oh, great. Yet another foreign policy catastrophe. Who’s keeping count anyway?
Perhaps the consequences for the U.S. over-stated here. Perhaps not. What we do know already is that as a result of this conflict the Bush Administration has lost the presence of Georgian troops in its Iraq coalition. And the U.S. has already been shown to be impotent in protecting a small ally that we helped egg into war with its colossal and ruthless neighbor.
Maybe if George W. Bush has another face-to-face meeting and once again gazes deep into the loving, soulful eyes of Mr. Putin he will be able to sort this mess out as neatly as he has in Baghdad.
August 10th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
I think this perspective from Anne Appelbaum, a historian and hawkish commentator who holds no brief for the Russians, demonstrates that this is a fairly complicated situation with no easy answers at this point, despite what some here will claim:
http://www.slate.com/id/2197155/
August 10th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
Ain’t it amazing! Everything that goes wrong in the world is George Bush’s fault.
He must have magical powers!
As for protecting a small ally… what did you expect? That we send in fighter planes? Against thermonuclear Russia?
If you’re gonna criticize, how about suggesting what *you* would have done to prevent this.
Yeah, and I know you wouldn’t look into Putin’s eyes and see his soul. Bush was a bit clueless on that one.
Now to see how long it takes the ankle-biter to appear.
August 10th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Oh my gosh….
I agree with REG!
Yes, it’s a complex situation with no easy answers.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:23 am
The United States has, time and time again, helped to legitimize the use, and escalation, of military force to resolve conflicts. That is its main role in the world these days.
Yes, the situation in Georgia is complicated, and the Georgians are no angels. But that again is no excuse for what the Russians are doing.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:48 am
Not a good day if you are Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian, Ukranian, Finn, Czeck, Pole, Hungarian…
August 11th, 2008 at 7:18 am
Easy answer:
Stop trying to extend NATO’s sphere of influence, when it is no longer neccessary.
August 11th, 2008 at 7:19 am
Or defund the NED.
August 11th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Good grief. Why is it George Bush’s fault? Maybe some left-wing journalist needs to study history a little further and see that maybe Saddam Hussein, the worthless U.N., Russia, and other factors going back a century have put things where they are. I’m surprised that she didn’t blame Reagan, too.
Also, Georgia had only two-thousand troops in Iraq and have pulled half of those in response to Russia’s invasion. Two-thousand troops won’t make a dent in stopping the Russian blitzkrieg. What a weak, weak argument to try to blame our mission in Iraq for Georgia not punishing Russia.
- – -
Michael Balter, there is a big difference between using military force to simply “resolve conflicts” and using military force to protect helpless people and their freedoms. Would you welcome a return to the Iron Curtain just to avoid conflict?
August 11th, 2008 at 7:41 am
With the Nazi-Anti-Semite nationalist demgouges in power the Baltics, I wish Russia would retake tht territory, where my family is from. These fuckers even took down a WW2 memorial, since it was Stalin who happened to run Russia in WW2.
The fact is, if Russia started arming sattelites of the US and riling them up with Israeli training etc. do you think that the US wouldn’t act the same way?
I am not justifying the Russians (though what is left out here is the near ethnic cleansing of Ossetians) but this is all part nad parcel of the failure of post-Cold War East Europe/Russia policy. Kosovo was a benchmark here, if not for that stupid adventure, Russia couldn’t use precisely the same excuse (ethnic cleansing) to bomb Tblisi far less seriously than the US bombed Belgrde.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:10 am
Bush on Putin after their first meeting”
Putin on Bush:
Apparently Bush ignored the fact that Putin is ex-KGB.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Putin ignored the fact that Bush’s father is ex-CIA.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:25 am
“Now to see how long it takes the ankle-biter to appear”
Looks like he showed up as the second commenter…
August 11th, 2008 at 9:22 am
McCain is obviously borderliine crackpot on this issue – using it as an occasion to call for expelling Russia from the G8 (which he’d already called for but then flip-flopped on.)
Since his chief foreign policy guru is a paid lobbyist for Georgia, McCain has zero credibility as a guy who can navigate these waters.
He’ll wrangle more votes by laughing it up with Jay Leno one more time than scaring the old ladies with macho talk against Russia that he can’t follow through on. (No other G8 country wants to expel Russia, so it won’t happen – also it’s an idiotic idea.)
August 11th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Putin ignored the fact that Bush’s father is ex-CIA.
The difference of course being that Bush’s father was a political appointee, while Putin went through extensive training in the KGB.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Here’s why the Bushies deserve blame. While expansion of NATO eastward has been a bad idea promoted by both Republicans and Democrats the notion that the “Near Abroad” – i.e. former Soviet Republics – could join NATO without a peep from Moscow was a nonstarter and every expert knew it. Great powers don’t want trouble on their borders – look at the US and Cuba or, how’s this, suppose back in the 80′s Daniel Ortega asked to join the Warsaw Pact. Think we would have aquiesed?
But the deep thinkers that compose the neocon heart of the Bush/Cheney foreign policy apparat ignored all this. There is also evidence that Saakasvilli really thought the EU and US would back him militarily – the idea that this guy is bright is another neocon pipe dream.
So yes GWB and his merry men stepped in it again!
August 11th, 2008 at 11:20 am
I won’t even mention oil and gas pipelines but once again a veteran player of “The Great Game” in Central Asia showed it still has the moves.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Randy: The difference of course….
You couldn’t get any funnier…and pathetic.
- – -
reg: McCain…flip-flopped.
Let’s check out Obama.
The original Obama on Russia invading Georgia:
The flipped Obama after testing the direction of the wind and reading from McCain’s position:
Surprise!… OBAMA FLIP-FLOPS On Russian War On Georgia
FROM MILK TOAST INTERNATIONALIST TO BRAVE McCAIN-LIKE WARRIOR
…In under 24 hours.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:33 am
I think the first comment in the article that I linked says it well.
The first statement was the Obama ‘generic condemnation of violence in the World’ template, unedited. It could have applied to any conflict, right down to the neighborhhod kids in fisticuffs on the schoolyard.
The second is indeed after someone explained to him that is was not Georgia, the state, and found the right chapter in Cliff Notes for the ‘Foreign Policy for Dummies’ book for him.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:33 am
zzzzzzz
August 11th, 2008 at 11:50 am
You couldn’t get any funnier…and pathetic.
The response of someone who really has nothing to say.
August 11th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
“And the U.S. has already been shown to be impotent in protecting a small ally that we helped egg into war with its colossal and ruthless neighbor.”
Well this took less time than I thought.
Isn’t this NYT ‘analyist’ the same one that did a similar article justifying Germany’s invasion of the SudatenLand in 1938? Using Hitlers version of the facts justifying it?
I could be wrong, but hard to tell the difference really.
August 11th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
I don’t understand why everyone on this site spends so much time debating with Woody–are there no worthier conservative adversaries, or is it just because it is so easy with Woody?
At any rate, at some point Woody will have to take responsibility for his own stupidity, as I suggest here:
http://michael-balter.blogspot.com/2008/08/its-stupidity-stupid.html
August 11th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
RLC – you are right about NATO, completely right – and yes, even the intelligent cold warriors like kennan, etc. opposed this adventurism. But the Kosovo precedent is another big deal here, and assuming like most libs you supported that war, can you not acknowledge taht at least geopolitically it gave Russia an opening to “Save Ossetians from Ethnic Cleansing”.
Further, do you think any of the libs who dominate the blatherspeher will say a word about how NATO ultimately shares responsibility for the Georgian tragedy? I doubt it. These are the types who cheered when the Anti-Semitc Ustashe declared Croatian independence.
Czechs who see Star Wars facilities built in their country hold signs at protest rallies saying “Germany 1938, Russia 1968, USA 2008″.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
I agree. Don’t argue with me. But, don ‘t expect to learn anything when all you do is talk among yourselves saying the same things.
Now, to discuss the topic, I think it’s time to bring Charlie Wilson out of retirement, this time to help the Georgians.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
It was great seeing George Bush (the younger) this weekend in Beijing. He was in his element–as a cheerleader, like back at Yale.
He explained to Bob Costas that the invasion of Georgia was wrong because “it is a sovereign nation.”
He explained his presence in Beijing (and his resistance to calls to boycott the games) by stressing the importance of maintaining constructive engagement even with countries with which we have disagreements. As he said, “heck we agree on a lot of things, too.”
When Costas said that perhaps problems at home limited our leverage with China, Bush responded, “America doesn’t have problems…”
He did seem sincerely concerned about religious freedom in China. That was about it. Oh, and women’s beach volleyball.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
NATO needs to seriously rethink what it’s all about. It should have either disbanded, or more usefully, just stayed with it’s cold war core group.
This push into the Eastern bloc is provocative to the Russians, and destabilizes US Russian relations. The expansion really makes it a dead letter anyway. If Russia thinks it has cause to invade some former Warsaw pact country, are we really going to go to war over it? Not a chance. We’ll raise a justified stink about it, but troops, and bombers? Get real. This makes NATO a paper tiger at best.
I’m not saying NATO is repsonsible for what’s happening in Georgia–the fine folks over there seem to be doing this one on their own–but our currying favor and considering NATO membership with numerous Soviet republics isn’t helping.
I don’t know enough aboout how this conflict emerged to say anything too useful. Did the Russians provoke by issuing passports to people in the region? Did the Georgians get cocky in an obviously doomed attempt to tangle with Russia? Both? I’m not sure. But I do know the “sovereignty” claim Bush made might as well go down a rat hole for all the authority he gets to muster on that topic. What a laugh.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Dan O.
The conflict is about Stalinists trying to take back the land of Dzugashvilli…at least thats what the local reactionary media says…(yes there are reactionaries in Canada, though many go onto become speechwriters for presidents)
I differ with you on one point. Nato doesn’t need to rethink itself. It needs to disband.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I have to say that what I’ve heard from Brezinzski and Holbrooke is almost as crank as from McCain’s Kagans, the Georgian lobbyist, et. al.
Brezinzski was making noises not too far removed from Jim R’s. I think these are noises that these guys think they’ve got to make, but it’s pathetic hearing their ponitification spiced with the kind of hollow incoherence we would expect from William Kristol.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
jc: Nato doesn’t need to rethink itself. It needs to disband.
I think we’re seeing why NATO needs to remain around.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Inducting Georgia into NATO would have been a signal that the alliance doesn’t mean shit because we’re not going to send NATO troops into Georgia to help them maintain control of Ossetia. jcummings is more right on this issue than I wish he was. Lech Walesa actually criticized the recognition of Kosovo as irresponsible and likely to lead to more of these types of mini-nationalist conflicts.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
jcummings: “Stop trying to extend NATO’s sphere of influence, when it is no longer neccessary.”
Well, many here would say that perhaps Russia’s actions show that alliances are still necessary. Cummings, that has got to be the most fatuous post you have ever done. Can reds do no wrong in your eyes?
All in favor of an anti-war march?
August 11th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
“He did seem sincerely concerned about religious freedom in China. That was about it. Oh, and women’s beach volleyball.”
Some would argue that our prowess at beach volleyball flows directly from our religious freedom. The facts are quite plain — you rarely find one without the other. I believe David Brooks has written on this topic, with many quotes from R. Neibuhr. Made me want to return to national greatness, immediately.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Funny, Wood
Georgia isn’t in the North Atlantic.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Walesa and the pragmatic socialists who were the core of Solidarity were sold out, hook line and sinker. No wonder my Polish friends miss communism.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
You may be right, evets, Serve the Spiker and you Serve the Lord!
August 11th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Michael Balter,
And,
August 11th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
National security strategy run by a bunch of bar-room drunks who can’t back up their bluster:
http://www.slate.com/id/2197281/
Meanwhile, where is Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice ? On vacation…
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5glSlc_C4k0kwrRXQbxwJk-igypAQ
August 11th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
You beat me to it reg: The Kaplan article on Slate is possibly the best commentary so far on Georgia. Seems virtually impossible to argue that the expansion of NATO right up the doorstep of Russia wasn’t pushed completely recklessly.
Also, if you read the Kaplan piece, the punch line is saved right at the very end. Russia couldn’t have rolled the massive force it has into Georgia if it hadn’t been able to reconstitute it’s military forces without having gotten fat on the high price of oil. If this whole sad episode isn’t yet more of an impetuous to shake the addiction to oil and develop alternative sources of energy…
So, where do the two main presidential candidates stand on alternative energy sources? Let me see, there’s this one guy who wants to drill and drill and …
August 11th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Oh, give me a break. The Secretary of State is always on the job, just as the President is, despite anti-Bush people who like to say that he and Condi and others are on “vacation.”
The article has the usual French weenie bashing the U.S., too.
Talk about biased sources.
August 11th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Georgian president’s Web site moves to Atlanta
Let’s see the Russians attack the Georgia web site, now. We’ll be waiting for them at Stone Mountain.
August 11th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
“We’ll be waiting for them at Stone Mountain.”
In that case, wouldn’t it make more sense for you to be supporting the violent secessionists (allied with the former colonial power) ?
August 11th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
George Kennan wrote in 1996 that the US extension of NATO to former Soviet bloc countries that rebelled against Russia was the worst foreign policy error since WWII — and that says a lot. The disintegration of Russia continues and Putin isn’t going to allow more break-away republics or Georgia’s suicidal grab of South Ossetia (and by the way, the South Ossetians are opposed to being annexed to Georgia.) At the same time Putin doesn’t like Saakashvili, and the Bush administration has certainly cozied up to him, supported the Rose Revolution, and used every opportunity to insult Russia. Now the situation is truly dangerous. Stay tuned.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Its not dangerous at all except for the people in the middle, Georgians, Ossetians, Russian soldiers. The US won’t lift a finger at this point. McCain’s pal Randy Scheuman is pals with Saakashvili, this is an early October Surprise. Saakashvili knew that he would put his country in harm’s way, but was promised great things if his friend McCain won.
Of this I m sure – Scheuman is close with Saakashvili, everything else is a reasonable inference.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:27 am
Suzi… South Ossetia is inhabited by lots of Georgians. The ultimate trigger for this conflict was Ossetian shelling of Georgian villages in South Ossetia. The Georgians either allowed themselves to be suckered by the Russian-prompted attacks, or decided that the conflict was inevitable, and it was time to get it done.
That Russian troops invaded far more than South Ossetia shows an imperialist intent, which shouldn’t be surprising to anyone.
Of course, great powers have helped break-away provinces in the recent past – but on the other side. The US (and NATO) waged two military campaigns in the Balkans – also without UN approval, and in fact without any provocation against their nationals (unlike Georgia).
I guess it depends on whose ethnics need cleannsing…
Seriously, this is a bad event for the world. A fascist state, holding the nuclear trump card, is able to get away with imperialism and ethnic cleansing.
I just can’t wait for Iran to get it’s nukes. They’ll be so much more responsible than the Russians… right?
woof woof
August 12th, 2008 at 7:28 am
Woody glories in a supposed Obama flip-flop. But it’s reported rather differently in that Marxist (or is it Islamo-fascist?) rag, the NYT:
—
In an initial statement released by his campaign, [Obama] did not directly blame Russia and instead offered a more measured response, which largely echoed the official comments of the European Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and President Bush.
“Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint and to avoid an escalation to full-scale war,” Mr. Obama said in the statement, which focused on negotiations and concluded that “all sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia.”
Mr. Obama did harden his rhetoric later on Friday, shortly before getting on a plane for a vacation in Hawaii. His initial statement, an adviser said, was released before there were confirmed reports of the Russian invasion.”
—
Now, Woody, don’t you think that Obama’s sudden sharp move toward something more like McCain’s position, starting FROM something more like the Bush administration’s position, should be viewed in some timeline context? I mean, in all fairness? Why not actually look at when the statements came out, and try to find out for yourself whether the difference had to do with a difference in the information available at the different times?
But you wouldn’t ever do that, would you? Because it’s so much easier to indiscriminately guzzle rightwing trash-talk versions of the story, isn’t it? Yes, it is.
August 12th, 2008 at 7:56 am
John Moore,
So those Ossetians started shelling Georgians out of nowhere?
I am not trying to attribute a monocausal trajectory, but you are. In all reality, the complex and contradictory ingredients certainly include constant abuses against Ossetians, who prior to the unfortunate breakup of the Soviet Union (Gorbie wanted to preserve it, Yeltsin pulled a Pinochet) were not territorially affiliated with Georgia.
August 12th, 2008 at 8:38 am
John, I don’t know where you get this:
“The ultimate trigger for this conflict was Ossetian shelling of Georgian villages in South Ossetia.”
You have a source on it?
You might check out the following article, from a source (the Jamestown Foundation) you could hardly take exception to:
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373294
“The latest outbreak of hostilities began on July 31 after two roadside bombs hit a Georgian police Toyota SUV near the Georgian village of Eredvi. Six Georgian policemen were wounded (Interfax, August 1). Russian peacekeepers, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, discovered that the bombs were made out of 122 mm artillery shells (www.mil.ru, August 2). The road leading to Eredvi was built by the Georgians to bypass Ossetian roadblocks near the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. Last November I traveled that road in a similar Toyota to visit the Georgian-controlled part of South Ossetia. This road has been a thorn in the side of the Ossetian separatists for some time. On July 4 a car with the pro-Georgian leader of South Ossetia Dmitry Sanakoyev, whom the separatists consider a renegade, was hit by a roadside bomb and shot at on the same road in almost the same spot. Three bodyguards were wounded, but Sanakoyev was unhurt. A surge of tension followed the attack (RIA-Novosti, July 4; Kommersant, August 4).”
The more I read about all this, the less I think you’ll find any “ultimate trigger”. Maybe it’s more about how long the bullet has been traveling down the barrel. A long barrel.
A conflict of similar scale between Georgians and Ossetians erupted not long after the Ossetians, sick of being lorded over by Georgians, began bidding for Soviet Republic status in the late 80s. Bad timing, eh? Bush Sr.’s administration was keen to see the Baltic republics gain full sovereignty as the USSR broke up, but left the question of all that messy stuff in the Caucasus to whatever the Russians could work out with the locals, with whatever attention they could spare. Which wasn’t much, I guess. So now we’ve got breakaway republics within breakaway republics within breakaway republics — it’s so fractured that different towns in South Ossetia have different timezones, depending on whether they are more allied with (really, more economically dependent on) the Russian Federation or Georgia.
http://polosbastards.com/pb/south-ossetia-a-land-of-no-crossroads/
August 12th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Mt’s comment is what Marc was referring to regarding intelligent commentary. I should say ‘comments’, because he always sets a good example.
It’s called engaging brain before running the mouth. Wish I were as disciplined.
January 21st, 2011 at 8:40 am
Dumb kid crowd surfing kicked my arm and it still hurts. I bet im gonna wake up with bruises all over
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