Obama-Bartlett
I was around a lot of gloomy Democrats today who are more or less convinced that McCain’s got this thing in the bag.
They came to me looking to get cheered up because I’ve been writing columns to the contrary. In the end, of course, I don’t know. I can only guess.
But one of my arguments or, better said, talking points is this: Yes, you can say that something is awry because Obama ought to be up 20 points in the polls. Or you can take the opposite tack, one I’ve been pointing out, and say: “Here we have John McCain. A long-time senator. A bona fide war hero in a time of war. Someone who has indeed showed moments of great independence from his party. And yet, he’s running a couple of points behind a 47 year old, black freshman senator whose middle name is Hussein. So, exactly who is in trouble here?”
I was tickled to see the same argument floated in today’s sparkling MoDo column. Read it.
September 22nd, 2008 at 1:34 am
Indeed, that was a rare sparkler for Modo.
She’s at her best when she lets a show biz pal write it for her.
And I’m also taking heart in the fact that Obama is now up a hair nationally and by a lot more than that in states like Michigan and Iowa.
I’m going to wager that McCain peaked on Palin’s celebrity blast. It’s all downhill from here.
One thing that does worry me is that Democrats have a history of losing every close election and every close state.
Not saying I believe electronic voting has been rigged, but I certainly don’t believe it could not be and/or has not been…
September 22nd, 2008 at 4:41 am
I just have a pit in my stomach as I try to figure out what the October Surprise is going to be. Another full attack on US soil or just the “substantial threat” of one. I think that they may realize that they could face criminal prosecution if a D wins.
September 22nd, 2008 at 5:27 am
Now the truthers support Obama. This, coupled with Hollywood and the Media, surely will make the difference.
September 22nd, 2008 at 7:02 am
I love it. After months of the media giving McCain free passes, now that they’re calling him out on his bullshit the entire media is in the tank for Obama. And they both have Hollywood stars on their side, it’s just that the McCain ones are lame. No word on if Jack Nicholson is a PUMA yet. As for truthers, I’ll take any vote we can get.
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:08 am
Just a tangential note – George W. Bush’s approval ratings are now down to 19% – the lowest ever recorded.
Remember when guys like Woody and Roper were telling us what a great leader he was ?
September 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
Since this was a very readable and incisive column, I’m assuming Dowd speaks the truth when she states she farmed it out to the brilliant Aaron Sorkin.
September 22nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
I honestly do not understand the hand-wringing.
- The convention bounce is over and Obama is inching ahead again.
- Palin is being exposed for the fraud she is (despite whipping up her right wing base), and is actually acting as a serious drag in some circles. Even some of their own party members are calling her choice crazy and irresponsible.
- The economy is on everyone’s mind and Dems have a natural advantage in those situations. Plus McCain’s gaffes on this topic are more than gaffes and reveal a worrisome lack of connection on the subject.
- The lying is coming back to bite them in the ass, and is starting to become how they are framed. This is not a good thing for them.
- Most people recognize the “no direct talks” non-policy of foreign policy as nutty, and several former Secs of State publically agree.
- The “no strings” bailout plan is vintage bullshit Bush stuff, and McCain is going to have that policy effort taped right to him. Also not good.
The biggest problem that Obama has is the craven Democratic congress. Too many of the ills we face can be justifiably laid at the feet of both parties. If Congressional Dems weren’t scared of their own shadows we would have had a vigorous opposition challenging Bush on all of his bullshit.
Instead they’re all afraid to be called soft on something, and as a result they are soft on everything. Obama, I believe, is hurt by this.
Anyway, I stand by my prediction that this race is well over. Not going to be close. Here’s to not eating crow in November!
September 22nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
“This, coupled with Hollywood and the Media”
Jim, you are reaching here. In the twenty-plus years of covering politics, I have found that in the U.S. Sentate, there has never been a bigger Hollywood-loving diva than John McCain. Do a lexus-nexus or westlaw search of all entertainment news coverage of Hollywood parties over the last ten years, and you will find that McCain has hobnobbed with just about every important star in Hollywood. As for the media – I have a friend who works for the Kansas City Star who told me that McCain buys round after round of drinks for every reporter at the bar. This is a guy who has said that the media is his base. This line of malarky that John McCain has nothing to do with the media and Hollywood is both bizaare, and an example of the fact that you guys have nothing.
September 22nd, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Let me say it this way and cut through the crap.
Any Dem should be winning this election.
If Barack does not win it will be for the sole and rather obvious reason — he is BLACK.
Anyone who does not believe that has never gone 20miles past their own home, let alone understand the astounding racism that still exists in the Continental U.S.
With the honest mood of the country any retarded white candidate would now be ahead by 60 -30 over McCain.
So be it – I can only hope that all the young voters and every last being who has been lacks votes and let’s Barack win, even if by 20,000 votes overall — and that is my sincere truth, all the rest to me is BS.
September 22nd, 2008 at 1:08 pm
DanO -
I agree with you on the hand-wringing. Right now BHO has the momentum, though it’s slowed a touch and I’m sure there’ll be some hand-wringing moments coming up.
One thing that continues to bug me is the news media calling the race a ‘statistical dead heat’. When any one poll shows Obama with a lead of a few points, close to the margin of error, that does, in fact, represent a statistical dead heat — for that one poll. When a whole bunch of polls show more or less the same numbers, their combined result is based on a larger sample size which reduces the margin of error. That means a lead of 3 – 4 points is real, not just a statistical anomaly. Does the press not get this, or are they incapabale of moving off the narrative that Obama ‘can’t close the deal’?
September 22nd, 2008 at 1:20 pm
“In the twenty-plus years of covering politics, I have found that in the U.S. Senate, there has never been a bigger Hollywood-loving diva than John McCain.”
This was before he was a candidate for president against a very liberal and very smart, someone they can really identify with, candidate, David. Remember how their fawning got so bad, SNL did a skit on it. This embarrassment cause them to ‘act’ more balanced.
“If Barack does not win it will be for the sole and rather obvious reason — he is BLACK…..So be it”
Ok Susan. No need to respond to a mind made up. So be it.
September 22nd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
My response to David’s comment above was referring to Hollywood and the Media tanked for Barack.
September 22nd, 2008 at 2:57 pm
I don’t know if this is any indication, but I would put the split in my National Guard unit (Infantry) at about 50-50 Obama/McCain. Since most people I know in the army have a real hate on for Democrats, this is actually a good sign. I’m betting Obama will win. I don’t really care one way or the other.
Just as a mental exercise, imagine if the races of the two candidates were reversed (white liberal first term senator from Harvard vs. black conservative war hero with a decade long record in the senate). Who do you think would win?
September 22nd, 2008 at 4:10 pm
DanO: “The economy is on everyone’s mind and Dems have a natural advantage in those situations.”
This seems to be an article of faith more than anything. I think the politically-minded assume it’s on everyone’s mind because they’re obsessing about it themselves.
September 22nd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
McCain is no “hero”.
He was captured after dropping bombs that killed people, many of whom were civilians.
He’s lucky to be alive, and to be a millionaire. Maybe his luck runs out in November.
September 22nd, 2008 at 4:49 pm
You have never been in the Military, have you Serg?
I a world where increasingly boys are growing up without a father at home, the Military is an excellent avenue to learn self dicipline, responsibility, and duty expected from men by men. Not to mention educational opportunities in and after service,
Women(mothers) are just to ‘motherly’, especially to their sons, and even if they try, boys are just to aggressive by nature. I know from personal experience in such a household, and military service at 20 years of age.
Unfortunately, this alternative is rarely considered in liberal left communities due to the liberal left’s negative attitudes by leaders in these communities. And it is getting worse. A very high number of these boys end up in prisons instead. Sad…….and Stupid.
September 22nd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
The other choice that is increasing becoming available, especially for minorities, is to push marginal boys into college before they are disciplined enough for it.
College is a real waste of time and parents/colleges/states money for way to many kids going right out of high school, who are just not mature enough for it. Just another motherly liberal environment that will do little to help them, and may actually do more harm than good to them when facing failure.
September 22nd, 2008 at 7:17 pm
“self dicipline, responsibility, and duty expected from men by men”
It’s funny that McCain, who grew up in a military family and graduated from the Naval Academy, admits he was a narcissistic punk until the Vietnamese first saved his live in an act of supreme grace and then, brutally, forced him to look his war straight in the face…
“Hero” is a meaningless term in the context of war, because most men in war are inevitably some combination of “hero” and “monster” by simple circumstance and with no regard for their “moral” fabric prior to immersion in hell. One thing is certain – John McCain circa 2008 is no hero, but the epitome of an opportunistic, narcissistic coward. And none too bright…
September 22nd, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Best Exchange Ever on Cooperstown Blog:
58. Woody Says:
September 20th, 2008 at 8:24 am
“reg: According to an AP poll (more people would rather watch football with Obama than with McCain.)”
reg, that’s what the AP gets by including liberals in the poll, when they would rather read poetry in a coffee shop than attend a (ugh) football game.
Look for me on ESPN game day. I’ll be at the Auburn – LSU football game. I don’t expect to see many Obama supporters there.
61. Black Voter Says:
September 21st, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Woody,
“I don’t expect to see many Obama supporters there.”
…except the ones scoring the touchdowns.
September 22nd, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Another McCain epic fail: http://tinyurl.com/4k2ay4
I’m telling you, it’s like watching the keystone cops try to get into the White House.
September 22nd, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Sniper -
That may be right, who knows. It’s a snapshot now, but it may not be capturing the full extent of the worry, which I detect more generally. I just have this deep suspicion that we’ve not yet seen the fallout. This is more anecdotal, but for a counterpoint: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/19/AR2008091902809.html
By chance I’ve recently gotten to know a lot of people who work in finance, and they are talking like it’s just a short time until economic doomsday. I mean, these people are scared shitless, and going to work everyday wondering whether work will be there.
I hope they are wrong.
I don’t know a ton about economics (maybe McCain and I could have a beer!), but I think the fact that our economy relies so heavily on finance and so little these days on manufacturing is likely to make this hit a big nasty one. Maybe even worse than that.
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:49 pm
How about actually responding to what Jim R said and addressed, Reg, instead of making it about the big bad boogeyman McCain?
You never know, applying some serious thought to this topic might result in a military that isn’t forever 60-90% Repub-leaning.
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:50 pm
Oh God – read this. I’ve been warming to Chris Mathews a bit in recent months, but this proves that this country has, dollar for dollar, some of the worst journalists in the entire world. Utterly shameful…
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2008/09/financial-skigamadoo-by-digby-ok-i-just.html
That said, the piece DanO linked at WaPo was the best thing I’ve read on this pigfuck – with lipstick – to date.
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Chris Matthews: Larry King with a leg tingle…
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:13 pm
qdp – Because Jim R was pulling shit out of his ass. Why should I waste time with self-referential bullshit. If that was “wisdom of the sages” I guess McCain is right about these idiot “elites.” I’m a liberal with one kid in the military who had trouble with college because of some, yes, learning disabilites. I don’t pretend to understand it, but he’s one of the smartest most analytical youngsters I’ve ever met but he tests terribly. My other kid sailed through every academic environment he’s ever encountered but is often not nearly as informed or thoughtful in intellectual discourse as his kid brother who”s off making the world safe for Democracy. As i said, I don’t pretend to undersand this, but I sure as hell won’t generalize from what I’ve observed up close and suggest that most kids who go to college are wasting their time. Most people are “wasting their time” more often than not, if one wants to get brutal with one’s observations. The weird notions he’s pushing about college are too simplistic to be taken seriously. I didn’t go to college, but I’d consider myself an arrogant asshole if I counseled others to skip it. And, yes, when there’s a senseless, counterproductive war on, telling kids that the military is the surest path to “manhood” is perverse. Fuck that shit. Arrogant bullshit from some old fool sitting on his fat white ass.
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Irony Alert! McCain’s campaign manager was a top lobbyist for giving free money to Negroes (which as every seriousl economic analysit knows, was at the root of the current financial crisis):
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/home_ownership_rick_davis_and.php
September 22nd, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Help me out here reg…
I’m a liberal with one kid in the military who had trouble with college because of some, yes, learning disabilites. I don’t pretend to understand it, but he’s one of the smartest most analytical youngsters I’ve ever met but he tests terribly.
Sounds like military service is serving your son well.
As i said, I don’t pretend to undersand this, but I sure as hell won’t generalize from what I’ve observed up close and suggest that most kids who go to college are wasting their time.
Fine. But are kids who go into the military wasting theirs?
telling kids that the military is the surest path to “manhood” is perverse
…and I would stipulate that ‘going to university is the surest path to’ anything is equally so.
September 23rd, 2008 at 6:15 am
Reg’s comment on my comment regarding the Military service option, although somewhat incoherent and garnished off with an out-of-the-blue racist sprig??, did manage to sum up my point nicely regarding leftists negative attitude toward the Military.
However, it is not the Military specifically they resist. It is rules, order, authority, responsibility, et al in general. The term liberal means what it implies, and leftists are ultra-liberals. Just look at any city they have been elected to run. Chaos, crime, and disorder requiring massive tax infusions from Washington to paper over mismanagement.
Obama comes from one of these Cities…..as I believe does reg.
September 23rd, 2008 at 6:57 am
Fuck you – I’ve got a kid in the military and you’ve got a big mouth and some dumb, unfettered opinions. I also have lived in Chicago, perhaps the greatest city in the US – certainly the most beautiful in terms of an urban, built downtown environment – but I was born and grew up in sem-rural Missouri.
As it happens, Chicago is down around 20th among cities in its murder and property crime rates, just above Phoenix, Minneapolis, Dallas and Nashville. It’s got all of the problems of major cities, but it’s relatively well run in municipal services – as any Chicagoan will tell you when a big snow hits and the streets are cleared within hours. As for “massive tax infusions from Washington”, go have a chat with Sarah Palin and her Alaskans who get more tax infusions from Washington than any other people on the planet per capita (they also get government payments from a collectively-owned resources scheme which rivals Hugo Chavez in the annals of home-grown socialism.)
“Obama comes from one of these Cities…”
Yeah, and I’m John McCain and I approved this message.
McCain, of course, has “resided” the last three decades in Phoenix (which has a history as one of the most mobbed out cities in the US) married into a ultra-millionaire family with direct ties to the corruption and criminality via it’s involvement in liquor distros and co-ownership of race tracks with criminals as hidden investors. (Incidentally, check out the more recent scheme to give nearly $100 million in taxpayer subsidies to a mall developer hatched by the municipal fathers of Phoenix and then come back and tell me about the corruption of our cities.)
September 23rd, 2008 at 7:14 am
qdp – the military has been, overall, a good choice for my son. Of course he joined the Navy rather than the regular army precisely because a guy he considers incompetent and irresponsible is commander in chief. Had Kerry won in 2004 he’d more likely have signed to the army. He wanted submarine duty, but has a minor medical issue that kept him off. He’s currently on a small destroyer in the Pacific, based in Japan. But he regrets not having stuck it out in school. He’d absolutely be better off today had he been able to keep that together. Unfortunately, he couldn’t when he had that chance at an excellent school.
I wasn’t making blanket statements about college vs. the military vs. whether or not I woke up on the wrong side of the bed and felt like shooting off my mouth about other people’s lives and choices, so the rest of your questions have zero relevance. Clearly I wasn’t making judgements, EXCEPT on folks who fetishize the military as a surefire path to “manhood.” If what I’m looking at when I see McCain circa 2008 is the result of “military manhood”, it’s not worth a thimbleful of spit. But I’m sure we’re seeing in this ridiculous campaign and floundering candidate the flaws of a man, not of the institutions that produced him. – with the likely exception of the U.S. Congress where he’s spent the longest part of his life.
September 23rd, 2008 at 8:23 am
A clue to how degenerate the Republican establishment has become – the guy who wrote the following insane rant can get the Vice-President of the United States to appear on his show and gets kudos from a sitting GOP President and former President telling him what a great job he’s doing and how important his work is. Read this crap and consider how debased and embarrassing it would be to be part of a movement that takes such a buffoon seriously:
“These polls on how one-third of blue-collar white Democrats won’t vote for Obama because he’s black, and — but he’s not black. Do you know he has not one shred of African-American blood? He doesn’t have any African — that’s why when they asked whether he was authentic, whether he’s down for the struggle. He’s Arab. You know, he’s from Africa. He’s from Arab parts of Africa. He’s not — his father was — he’s not African-American. The last thing that he is is African-American.”
These people are, in a word, totally fucking nuts. Okay….three words.
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:01 am
reg -
Whose comment is that?
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:17 am
Rush Limbaugh, who apparently doesn’t know where Kenya is. he also doesn’t appear to know that the nation is 88% Christian, as are the overwhelming majority of Arab-Americans.
Sounds like he’s been hitting the hillbilly heroin again.
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
He also doesn’t know that Kenya is East African – i.e. as “black” as any you can find, for what that’s worth – with an Arab population of less than 1%.
September 23rd, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Actually Marc I don’t want to blow my own horn (not much anyway!) but last year I wrote a piece for BH in which I said that Obama was a “West Wing” character – not Bartlett but Matt Santos: the three term Houston Congressman played by Jimmy Smits, who wins the whole enchelada.
Sorkin, of course, had nothing to do with that series – he’d been fired from his own show!
September 23rd, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Relax – this is 1980. People are fed up with the GOP just as they were done with Jimmy Carter. But they weren’t sure about Reagan and they’re not sure about Obama. The debates changed thaqt in ’80 and will again this year. Once Obama is seen as credible its all over.