Pat-a-cake pat-a-cake Baker’s Man
Nice to hear that Jim Baker's Iraq Study Group has advanced the public release of its miracle cures for the war in Iraq. The great unveiling is set for next Wednesday.
That's assuming there's still an Iraqi government in power six days from now. With each passing day, as Todd Gitlin notes, Iraq looks more like Somalia than Vietnam.
Who's in charge anyway in Baghdad? There was that stunning little incident this past afternoon in Jordan in which our great friend, ally, and client -- the Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki-- unilaterally postponed his three-way pow-wow with George W. Bush and King Abdullah. Excuse me if I come off as a bit of a Big Power Chauvinist or, God Forbid, as an Imperialist, but doesn't $350 billion, 2900 dead American soldiers and another 25,000 wounded at least buy the American president a meeting? On his schedule?
Apparently not. While the White House might fancy Maliki as their personal puppet, it looks like the PM's more binding ties are with Muqtada Al-Sadr. Mooky, as he's known among U.S. troops, went ahead and carried out his threat to boycott the Iraqi parliament if the meeting with Bush went ahead. In the end, there is no Mailiki government without the support of Mooky's militia.
The really wonderful part of this story is how, after getting pissed on by the Iraqis, the White House just toweled it right off and pretended nothing had happened. Says the AP:"Absolutely not," Bartlett said." He said the king and the prime minister had met before Bush arrived from a NATO summit. "That negated the purpose to meet tonight together in a trilateral meeting."
Oh yes, there's also this. While the Iraqi P.M. was mooning Bush, the Iraqi President was in Teheran hugging and kissing his Iranian counterpart, the two countries having reached a "security agreement."
I don't read much of the right-wing blogosphere. But how's all this going down with the war hawks? We're now spending American lives to support a pro-Iranian regime in Baghdad? Who could write this script?
But I digress. Back to the Fabulous Baker Boys study group and their upcoming report. "We reached a consensus," the group's co-chair Lee Hamilton said on Wednesday as he carefully omitted any suggestion of what the substance of that love-fest might be.
One thing we know for sure, it's definitely not going to be some grand strategic plan on how to minimize this disaster and reach some comprehensive regional settlement. I mean, have you actually looked at who populates this commission? A clown like Alan Simpson. A professional fixer like Vernon Jordan. Kissinger Krony Lawrence Eagleburger. And, among other beltway creatures, Ed Meese, for heaven's sake.
These folks are only going to come up with a political concoction, not a strategy. Not that any of what is said will, in fact, matter very much. Off all places, Newsweek, comes up with this darkly realistic assessment:
So the White House is ready to change course in Iraq, right?
Not quite. The president and his senior staff arrived in Amman, Jordan, on Wednesday with a deep sense of discontent about the direction of Iraq. But that doesn’t translate into a major course correction, no matter what the pundits—or the Democrats, or James Baker’s study group—suggest. Somewhere between Stay the Course and Reverse Course lies Bush’s new approach. Call it Adjust the Course...
For anyone expecting more out of Amman, or more out of the extensive policy reviews under way, they need look no further than President Bush himself. No matter what the result of the midterm elections, nor the conclusions of James Baker, there is only one commander in chief, and only one decider. And his decisions on the big things in Iraq seem set in stone...
Back in 2000, Bush’s senior aides used to say that pundits spent too much time parsing Bush’s words. Instead of looking for hidden meanings and ulterior motives, reporters should take him at face value, they said. As he reviews his Iraq policy, Bush’s face is an open book. He has no intention of leaving Iraq, or abandoning its prime minister. Naive or not, Bush still hopes that Maliki may yet grow into an Iron Man of the Middle East. Â
Right. And if my aunt had cojones, she'd be my uncle.
P.S. As I write there comes breaking news via NYT/CNN that the Baker group will propose a pullback of 15 brigades with no timeline. That's the Grand Compromise. Not even clear if the pullback is within or without of Iraq. Sounds to me like "phased redeployment" -- the bromide that the Dems have been guzzling. This is why that formulation sucked from the outset.
November 29th, 2006 at 9:30 pm
Sounds like Maliki got the early preview of the Baker Report…..or not.
What the fuck difference does it make anyway, after he’s seen the white flaggers take Congress.
What would you do in his shoes? I thought so…so would I.
Goodbye USA. Hello Vietnam…..uh, that would be Iran this time wouldn’t it. Congrads.
November 29th, 2006 at 9:44 pm
If some of the darker hypotheses about Maliki in that leaked Hadley memo turn out to be true, Bush can honorably choose to not meet Maliki by resorting to that time-honored principle, “We don’t negotiate with terrorists.”
I would like to take this opportunity to point out that we’re about to reach another important milestone in the Kurdistan Petrostate Quasi-Exit Strategy. As Thomas Ricks and Robin Wright point out, everybody in America–politicians of both parties, voters across the spectrum, and even the military–is starting to blame this non-existent entity called “the Iraqi People”. They’ll soon start explicitly exempting the Kurds from that grouping. Especially since Kudristan seems to be a good place to put our troops during “phased redeployment”, what with all those permanent bases that somehow got built in the North even though we were never planning to stay in Iraq for very long.
November 29th, 2006 at 11:05 pm
Turner seems a bit obsessed with Kurdistan but he may be on to something. There’s a lot of oil up there, nice place to have some permanent US bases.
November 29th, 2006 at 11:20 pm
btw this excerpt from the NYT describing how the meeting cancellation went down is pretty amazing reading. It really does seem to signal that the main players in the Middle East are writing the US out of the script. As one of the Baker committee’s members told the Times on a not for attribution basis, its recommendations may be made obsolete by events.
“The president and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice were already aboard Air Force One, on the way to Amman from Riga, Latvia, where they had been attending a NATO summit meeting, when they received the news by telephone from the United States ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad. The White House insisted Mr. Bush was not upset and had not been snubbed.
“Absolutely not,†said Dan Bartlett, counselor to the president.
With the Wednesday night meeting with the king canceled, Mr. Bush and Mr. Maliki still intend to have breakfast together here Thursday. A senior White House official said that after the king and Mr. Maliki had held a productive private meeting earlier in the day, they decided that a three-way session with Mr. Bush was not “the best use of time.—
November 29th, 2006 at 11:31 pm
I plead guilty to obsession, but not with Kurdistan per se. I just want to know how it’s all going to turn out, and I keep following the money. Which, in Iraq, always takes me underground.
One can see the makings of a natural territorial division of Iraq based on Iraq’s three “superfield” reserves– one near Kirkuk, maybe halfway to being tapped out, but when added to Kurdistan’s total, it might be 15-20% of all that Iraq has. By far the largest superfield is nearer Basra, natural Shi’ite territory. Then there’s a superfield just East of Baghdad. The Sunnis have next to nothing if they don’t get that one. Maybe something will be worked out where Baghdad becomes a split capital, and the Sunnis get access to that superfield. On the other hand, I’ve read that a concentrated Sunni effort to retake Baghdad in the wake of an American withdrawal would be a cakewalk for them. Among the Sunnis, there are tens of thousands of seasoned military officers and foot-soldiers, sent into forced early retirement. Militias tend not to be very professional or experienced. The Shi’ite militias might have strength in numbers, but the core of the Iraqi army under Saddam held off human wave attacks from Iran, despite being very outnumbered.
In any case, in only one of those territorial divisions can Americans expect a warm welcome and popular support from for the indefinite future, and that’s Kurdistan.
November 30th, 2006 at 11:46 am
Reporting on the upcoming Baker Commission report, the LA Times warned that the Bush Administration plans to ignore advice that they open contact with Iran and Syria. Who cares if it’s a practical or effective way of influencing the future of Iraq as long as he can stand on principle. You know, ignore anyone who won’t listen to you. It’s the neeeneer-neerneeer-neeeneer foreign policy.
September 30th, 2010 at 9:37 am
haha, I love Sandals. Unlike garment fashion, shoes always fits!
October 21st, 2010 at 6:51 pm
Howdy I’m itching to know if I can use this post on one of my blogs if I link back to you? Thanks