Showdown Week
I pretty much agree with the always insightful E.J. Dionne that this week and what comes or doesn’t come out of the Thursday health care summit is make or break time for the next three years of our political life. If the Democrats and Obama don’t bust up the furniture and roll over the Republican boulders with a reconciliation passage of health care reform then we are doomed to years of do-nothingism coupled with economic stagnation. No exactly a formula for reform.
If you think the last the last few months of total political paralysis –especially since the election of Scott Brown-- is something passing, you better get yourself a bottle, a big effiin’ bottle of Xanax. What you see is what you get. The intransigence of the Republicans is total and irreversible. They’ve made it abundantly clear that their entire strategy is now leveraged on blocking any and all reform legislation — virtually anything that comes from the Democratic majority. It’s not difficult to read through their bullshit rhetoric. Nor is it coincidental that their conservative flank has entered a state of near permanent collective psychosis, picking black helicopter pilot Ron Paul in their presidential straw poll.
The only variable in this formula for complete political asphyxiation is whether or not the Democrats are going to continue to be the enablers in this very, very sick political marriage of the two major parties. You know things are edging toward a full-on Code Bue situation when a group of tepid Democratic governors start to get publicly anxious i.e. PRIVATELY HYSTERICAL.
Even the most lumbering, stupid and blind among barnyard animals can sometimes sense their imminent extinction. And that is, indeed, what we are talking about here. If the Democrats stay their current course they run the palpable risk of losing both houses of Congress back to the brain-dead Republicans. It’s one thing to be whipped by smart, clever and powerful opponents. It’s quite another to get bested by moronic bumblers. Then again, who said the Democrats are much smarter?
There’s enough concern among them, however, to even re-ignite the spark of a public option. I wouldn’t place any money on that bet, but I am willing to be surprised. Indeed, my money –unfortunately– remains stuck on the suicide option with which most Democrats seem to be most comfortable.
Reaching the conclusion, as I did a few weeks ago, that we are most likely headed for even deeper paralysis, I have been forced to re-examine my views of Obama. I continue to think of him as extraordinarily intelligent and someone who, unlike say Bill Clinton, has an authentic moral center. He was a great campaigner. He’s been a mediocre president further saddled by a number of catastrophes he inherited from a gang of chumps who deserve to be tossed off some cliff. I am not blind to Obama’s weak spot for Wall Street nor his more cynical connections to Chicago machine politics, beginning with his odious chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel.
But I am going to stick to my fantasy, at least for the time being, that the Man is better than his Party, And that means, in consequence, that the only hope he has of salvaging his limping presidency is to put his foot down on its neck. And the only way her he can do that is to first dispense with the Republicans and the continuing fairy tale about bi-partisanship. We already have bi-partisan agreement — to do nothing.
Dionne is correct in identifying, in part, what Obama’s strategy is underlying Thursday’s summit. He wants to publicly call the bluff of his Republican opponents. Believe it or not, we poker players also call this a showdown. You force your opponent to go all the way down to “the river” –the last card– and then force him to make a big bet and then you call it, forcing him to show his cards or fold and muck them when he sees yours. It’s a bracing power play — if you win. And quite humiliating if you’re called out and then have to show everybody the crap hand you’ve been bluffing with. But you can’t beat nothing with nothing as is said at the tables. If you’re gonna force the showdown, as Obama seems intent on doing Thursday, you better damn well have a strong hand yourself — at least one that crushes your opponent.
It’s time to crush or fold. If Obama does the latter, you can forget about anything happening politically until November when the GOP sweeps.
P.S. For fun, please keep an eye on my Reporter War Stories blog. My latest chapter is about “drunkest ever.” With Oliver Stone.
Click on photo to see interview.
February 22nd, 2010 at 8:03 am
The key for President Obama is to show himself as reasonable and compromising, while showing the Republicans to be unreasonable and uncompromising.
I seems quite clear the Republicans have no intention at compromise, as made clear by Mitch “Pecker-Neck” McConnell on Chris Wallace’s Sunday News program, another classic Washington lifer loser less-than-useless hack.
Of course it hasn’t help the President to ‘show up’ the other side when Nancy and Harry are showing theirs by working in the background to pass ‘their’ HCR, not even giving the President a chance to show up the Republican leadership as truly the NO nothings, DO nothing, unreasonable NO bodies.
Once again, San Fran Nan in all her glorious self-righteous extremism on the left, may very well steal the news ‘spot’ light while showing the President in a ‘bad’ light even before his well advertised and promoted ‘compromise’ meeting with the Republicans.
In the minds of ordinary voters, whatever Nancy and Harry are doing with HRC, they believe it is done with the approval of the President. They don’t understand just how independent, and in Nancy’s case extreme, the leaders in the legislative branch can be.
Of course Nancy is not politically stupid. She likely fully understands how fooling around behind closed doors with Harry, at the same time the President is talking reason and compromise, will put the President’s real intention in question, and therefore almost guarantee no compromise by Republicans.
It is likely done with full knowledge of the consequences in order to make damn sure there is no compromise.
It is likely done with full knowledge Harry, the President, and the Party may have to go down, may have to ‘take’ one for the cause. She runs no risk in the Peoples Republic of San Francisco. Then again, she may be so extreme she actually believes, once her bill passes by breaking long-standing Senate rules, there will be enough people who would actually benefit before 2012 to see the wisdom of it all, repairing all the damage done to the President, the Party, the Senate, and the majority that will be forced to pay for her ‘generosity’.
What does ‘she’ have to lose?
February 22nd, 2010 at 8:11 am
Where’s the bluff? That Obama shows Republicans as unwilling to deal? We already know that. And they are proud of doing so.
Obama showed terminal weakness when the banksters said they couldn’t make that meeting because it was foggy, then called in and he meekly thanked them. LBJ would have had their heads on a pike. So they, and the Republicans no doubt, rightly assume they have nothing to fear from him.
February 22nd, 2010 at 8:25 am
Bob – Whatever the merits of your general point, this LBJ thing is mythical. When Medicare was on the table, LBJ turned the whole thing over to Wilbur Mills (the Max Baucus of his day, although dumber, even more conservative and with a penchant for strippers.) LBJ had handed shaping the bill over to Mills and when it wasn’t coming out of Mills committee, LBJ’s solution as a “heads on a pike” Democrat was to add all of the Republican proposals lying around – which, as a testament to remarkably different times, tripled the cost of the program rather than cut it back. But he ate it and produced a “bipartisan” bill. LBJ also refused to project the long-term cost of the program. If he had, it would probably have been killed. It’s one thing to criticize Obama, but quite another to imagine that there was some great day when Democratic President’s were some terrific combination of tough guys and unalloyed liberals.
February 22nd, 2010 at 8:48 am
The time for Reconciliation, and getting the public’s approval, was AFTER President Obama’s attempt at reason on Thursday. To have talk of Reconciliation and Public Option coming out of Congress BEFORE Thursday was just politically stupid, and a real public relations loser. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory instead of letting the Republicans do it to themselves.
President Clinton broke the 1994 Republican majority, and saved his presidency, when he caused Gingrich to look like the unreasonable and uncompromising in the public’s eye, when Republicans threatened to shut down the Federal Government.
Well, the Republicans are threatening to do it again. Do you really want to give them reasons why? It’s all about the public’s perception of who is the more extreme folks.
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:45 am
Here’s a little something people who care about this can do…
http://act.boldprogressives.org/cms/sign/bipartisanship/?source=bp
February 22nd, 2010 at 10:52 am
Yeah I posted that a thread back, reg…and Maddow cited the org for its effectiveness in getting the bozos to push for reconciliation.
February 22nd, 2010 at 11:20 am
Reg and Anna, thanks for the link, looks like a good organization. Signed.
February 22nd, 2010 at 12:31 pm
Obama as a highly intelligent, morally centered person is laughable.Early last year, with 70% of the public favorable to a Medicare-for-all system, he caved on the public option, really before negotiations even started. He caved to big pharma in similar fashion for promises of a minute price reduction and a few TV ads favoring his ‘reform’ package, squandering any hope of real price reductions for consumers via govt bargaining power.
He’s either the world’s worst negotiator or he never really considered any option but appeasement when it came to dealing with the health insurance/pharma mafia. So whether he’s an intelligent or ‘moral’ person, the fact is he set back the cause of meaningful health care reform to the pre-Clinton era.
February 22nd, 2010 at 12:38 pm
“he set back the cause of meaningful health care reform to the pre-Clinton era”
Uh…no.
February 22nd, 2010 at 1:07 pm
Pretty much have to agree with ewatters on this one. Obama has all but squandered a once in a generation opportunity for real meaningful reform. He may be intelligent, he may be moral, but these qualities to the degree they exist are vastly overshadowed by his fetish for bipartisanship and poor negotiating skills.
Unlike many here, I don’t blame the Democrat Congress more than Obama. I believe Congress would have behaved much differently had Obama showed the slightest bit of leadership and determination to enact real reform.
I also don’t believe Obama needs to be “pushed” by a progressive movement. The movement already existed and in fact got him elected. He then chose to disregard and dismiss his progressive base which has in turn demoralized and disinterested the movement. For this he has nobody to blame but himself.
Maybe he’ll see the light and change but I’m not holding my breath.
February 22nd, 2010 at 1:39 pm
We’ve got significant HCR passed in both Houses and all that needs to be done is reconcile the two bills – which is why they call it “reconciliation.” Unless 11 Senators who’ve already voted for the bill refuse to go along with relatively minor changes suggested by the White House – which I seriously doubt – there will be a bill. The biggest deal since Medicare. This week it’s Kabuki with the GOPers. I’m predicting Obama will come out of this “showdown” looking good, the GOP will be discredited even more (and it is, bizarrely, probably necessary to engage in this last bit of silliness for the purposes of the unhinged, supremely dishonest news cycle, and the Dems will fall in line. Anything else is truly a suicide mission by terrified lemmings. Marc’s worst fears could turn out to be reality, but I’m betting against it. Of course, if they do it will save me some money and energy I currently intend to spend on the November elections.
February 22nd, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Poor demoralized and disinterested Progressive Base…not getting enough strokes from the White House to actually give a shit about the direction of the country. We deserve better !
February 22nd, 2010 at 2:37 pm
reg says: Poor demoralized and disinterested Progressive Base…not getting enough strokes from the White House to actually give a shit about the direction of the country. We deserve better !
Strokes? You think it’s all about strokes? I truly don’t understand a comment like that coming from someone who’s obviously intelligent and well informed–and I don’t mean that sarcastically.
Know what? I changed my mind. Obama has been awesome! I love how he’s giving us all the opportunity to blow Big Insurance and Big Pharma, the only question left being whether or not we’re required to swallow.
I love how he admonishes us not to demonize bankers and how he reminds us the CEO of Goldman is a real “savvy guy”.
I love how he makes deficit reduction a priority
during the worst recession since 1932
I love how he continues Bush era human rights abuses by continuing the practice of rendition.
I love how he backs down from calling right wing terrorism terrorism, even after a doctor performing legal reproductive procedures is gunned down and his office closed.
I love how he panders to the Grassley’s and Snowe’s and Leiberman’s and Nelson’s in the Senate in an effort to realize his bipartisan dreams.
The list goes on and on but WOW!! I’m feelin’ pumped!! I never realized before how committed Obama is to Progressive values!! Glad I saw the light!
February 22nd, 2010 at 4:59 pm
My point is this: I’ve been disappointed with some things Obama has done and not done. I expected this, although I didn’t expect the economy to be so fucked and I think bolder action was needed quickly than might have been the case under more “normal” circumstances. That said, I hardly expect Obama to follow “my advice.” I’ve actually been more disappointed with OFA – which was late getting into the health care debate. I don’t think their leadership has been as strong as was needed – and yes, to excite people who worked on the campaign and keep them engaged. But, to be honest, I’m more disappointed in myself for taking a breather after the election and, despite my “rhetorically” knowing this wasn’t rational, expecting Obama to watch my back instead of my taking more initiative in watching his. ( Also, a lot of your list is hyperbolic and/or inconsequential as criticism of Obama. Among other things, he obviously hasn’t made deficit reduction a priority in the middle of deep recession. And if you had a game plan to whiz health care through the Senate in the face of GOP obstruction/filibuster, I’d love to hear it. “Reconciliation” isn’t an answer – lots of the bill couldn’t be passed that way, nor was the Senate willing to go that route in the first round.)
Everybody’s smarter and more progressive than Obama…and here we are chatting at Marc Coopers’ rather than doing the dirty work of politics in the godawful electoral/legislative arena. I’m way too good of a person to do that, have better things to do with my life and I abhor all of the compromises and bullshit…so people in need of health insurance are welcome to read my comments here at Marc’s and elsewhere. Hope they’re of some help…
February 22nd, 2010 at 5:15 pm
Five GOPers crossed over and supported the jobs bill. Looks like Scott Brown got his last invitation to any Tea Parties…maybe he actually wants to get re-elected in Massachusetts.
February 22nd, 2010 at 8:18 pm
[...] « Showdown Week [...]
February 22nd, 2010 at 8:50 pm
Obama sucks because the US Empire sucks.
Get used to it.
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:07 pm
You suck…
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:32 pm
reg, re:
“he set back the cause of meaningful health care reform to the pre-Clinton era”
Uh…no.
——————————————
To most people, meaningful reform means economically sustainable. Funneling our health care dollars through a miserably inefficient private insurance corporate system that skims off 20-30% of every dollar and doesn’t have anywhere near the consumer satisfaction of Medicare is sustainable in our ersatz democracy, but insane.
What’s unsustainable is the projections that by 2025, health care costs will amount to over 50% of median household income. If your looking to trim costs, what better place to start than corporate health insurance: 20-30% cost savings and little to no effect on patient outcomes.
The Dem’s plan will possibly cover most of the uninsured and, for at least 40,000 people that has life or death ramifications but the way it will be achieved only strengthens the opponents of true reform. Some are optimistic that the govt will, all of a sudden, begin effectively intervening in cases of health insurer malfeasance and stop pre-existing exclusion etc, but I can’t see that happening. Definitely not when health insurance lobbyists are overseeing the drafting of the legislation and we’re counting on creeps like Baucus to look out for the consumer’s interest.
Reg, I guess you can argue that at least we have capitol hill trying to address the issue of the uninsured. But my ‘at least’ is, at least the Clinton’s initially proposed back in ’93, a truly public plan (hasty retreats notwithstanding). Public support for a single payer plan or extension of Medicare has actually increased a few points since ’93 but Obama in ’09 never seriously entertained anything but more private insurance with generous govt subsidy in order to insure the uninsured, curiously not eliciting any cries of comrade Obama.
Reg, progress since pre-Clinton seems debatable.
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:34 am
What is it about “the people don’t want the government managing their private health care” don’t you understand Ed?
For those who depend on the government, us, to pay for their health care, the government ought to manage it well, in our, the payers, name. How’s that worked out with bankrupted Medicare and Medicaid?
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:43 am
How have Medicare and Medicaid worked out? Pretty damn well, Jim. Two of the most successful government programs of the last 50 years. I also don’t who “US” are compared to those on Medicare. Unless you are a millionaire and plan to pay for your own medical costs out of pocket or remain employed by a generous employer, you too are likely to use Medicare after age 65.
It’s news to me that both programs are bankrupt. Could you please post a link to your source on that? Actually, that is impossible because they are still solvent. Can their bankruptcy be projected? Of course! So can the entire economy on the same course. Both programs can easily be made solvent for decades to come with only minor and progressive tax tweaks.
I am sort of dumbfounded by your US and THEM view of this? Are you also resentful of paying for old farts on social security? May you never find yourself in need and become one of THEM. Or more accurately, one of US. WOW.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:32 am
Jim R Says:
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:34 am
What is it about “the people don’t want the government managing their private health care” don’t you understand Ed?
———————————————
What is it about “72% of Americans polled were in favor of a Medicare-for-all public plan” that you don’t want to accept?
Since ‘most people’ don’t want the govt managing their health care, does that mean they prefer the impenetrable hierarchies of health insurance corporations managing their health care?
Does Jim R have a credible source for his ‘bankrupt Medicare’ claim? (BTW, ‘Rush says so’ is not a credible source).
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:42 am
Actually, while the SS “bankruptcy” is total bullshit and needs only a few minor tweaks, Medicare does face serious problems IF the health care system isn’t reformed and costs aren’t controlled.
The reality behind universal health insurance reform – and putting some “best practices” in place, along with regulation of stuff like drug prices – is that it should be enthusiastically supported by anyone concerned about the future of federal deficits and the almost absurdly high % of our GDP that’s eaten up by the health care sector. Health care costs are going to be a big part of our national budget because of demographics and improvements in care, but the only countries that have this piece even reasonably under control are countries that have regulated, universal coverage – be it via public or private “options.”
One of the most disturbing aspects of the health care debate has been the unwillingness to look at the big picture, without universal reform, of skyrocketing health costs by “deficit hawks” and folks who are concerned about the country’s economic future – including the ability of small business folks, entrepreneurs and workers in an increasingly uncertain and mobile job market provide themselves and their dependents with health insurance. The nostrums about tort reform or the extreme deregulation of “buying across state lines” doesn’t even begin to address the issue. Tort reform isn’t necessarily a bad idea if done carefully – although many states have already done it with little impact on rates – but loosening regulation of the insurance industry by universalizing the lowest common state regulatory denominator is a recipe for disaster, expanding the reach of the worst insurers.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:42 am
Oops, forgot. One more comment:
The prevalent “us vs them” attitude regarding (take your pick) the elderly, the uninsured, immigrants, the poor, the foreclosed etc is really central to the Republican ideology. Their sense of community does not extend beyond the wealthy sector of our population although all Republicans, regardless of income, are allowed and encouraged to advocate for the wealthy even when it’s against their own interests.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:47 am
A model for controlling the increasing costs of Medicare as boomers retire and the program expands:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/27/medicare-and-the-va/
Of course, as the author points out, the people screaming about deficits don’t care about deficits, they care about their crank hate-government ideology and see the best way to kill government is by…increasing deficits and bankrupting the system. Milton Friedman was quite open about this, as is George Will. The “Tea Party” types are nothing but useful idiots.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:58 am
And lest we trust Republicans to solve the issues surrounding Medicare costs, there’s this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/26/opinion/26KRUG.html
Frankly, I’m cynical enough to believe the GOP pushed a program that rather sharply increased the overhead costs of Medicare in order to bolster their arguments to kill it. These are IMHO very bad people.
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:00 am
“Five GOPers crossed over and supported the jobs bill.”
I would call it a “13 Billion dollar give away to the corporate sector to create jobs that would have been created anyways.” I would think it’s an easy vote for any conservative, though for the 30 who didn’t, as been said before, it’s just to block Obama’s socialist agenda. : )
February 24th, 2010 at 9:22 am
“Two of the most successful government programs of the last 50 years. I also don’t who “US” are compared to those on Medicare. Unless you are a millionaire and plan to pay for your own medical costs out of pocket or remain employed by a generous employer, you too are likely to use Medicare after age 65.”
Marc, ‘US’ are those 50% who actually pay ‘any’ taxes to pay the bills, and now, a monthly minimum payment on an out-of-control credit card in the hands of our binge drinking children. ‘US’ are those who are asked, no forced, to pay the bills by the very irresponsible children in our collective ‘household’ that we have no control over and cannot seem to kick their ass out either. The insane have become the managers of the asylum.
Yes I would like to get my health insurance premiums paid for at some age, using the money I have paid in yearly for just this purpose. I have been asked, no forced, to pay for my heath insurance now I can work, so the government. US, are not burdened and bankrupted by me in the years I cannot work.
But that increasingly irresponsible government is now saying they may not be able to may my premiums in old age because their generosity and gross mismanagement of waste, fraud, abuse by out-and-out crooks including doctor’s themselves, have squandered my premium money.
Now they want to add 30 million more people onto a ‘going bankrupt system’, sorry, that have not paid into it over the years. 30 Million people that for what ever reason, mostly their own irresponsible, and likely dangerous, behaviors have made their own bed. There are already ‘programs’ galore to be sure they not only are not denied need healthcare, but get help for their problems to the extend they WANT it and are willing to do something FOR it in return.
February 24th, 2010 at 9:31 am
Speaking of taxes, Mr. Geitner, Mr. Rangel, and Mr. Congressmen, PAY YOUR FUCKING TAXES!
The IRS, another mismanaged, incompetent, and political government ‘program’. Fire them all and give me a CONSUMPTION TAX instead, so the taxes are collected fairly at the point the overspending, irresponsible lifestyle, irresponsible debtors, do their CONSUMING.