The Election: My Two Cents
Spin Tuesday’s election results any way you wish, tell yourself any fair tale you please, but the hard, cold truth is that the Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey MUST be taken as a serious warning signal to Democrats.And more importantly, as a warning to the rest of us who are subject to the governance of either or both major parties.
True, Barack Obama, was not the issue in either election. But that’s the crux of the problem. Obama remains very popular and could probably win anywhere against anyone anytime between now and November 2o12. Obama, however, isn’t running again until then. Bill Clinton, I will remind you, was re-elected in 1996 — two years after losing control of Congress to the Republicans and living with that reality for the near total remainder of his tenure.
And, yes, it is also true that favorability ratings for Republicans are at an all time low, with only 20% of Americans identifying with the GOP. Which means the problem is only bigger than one can imagine for Democrats.
With such a popular president and with such a comical opposition, why did the comical opposition win two new state houses?
The answer is not that there is a Republican resurgence. Rather, there is an incipient Democratic implosion. American politics is not necessarily a zero-sum game. One party’s decline does not automatically translate into the other’s gain. Apathy and disengagement are more likely winners.
Obama was a marvelously charismatic and inspiring candidate who promised sweeping change. He has engaged in his own personal sidestepping but more to the point it seems rather obvious that the Democrats are a party of the status quo, not of change. There has been a remarkable failure to capitalize on the electrifying energy that swept Obama into office just one year ago. The effervescence that first erupted in Iowa has fizzled into too much apathy and lethargy. I believe that Obama, even with his compromises, remains an inspirational figure but his coat-tails are not even remotely long enough to carry along an entire brain dead and compromised Democratic Party.
Tonight’s election results are proof positive that there is NO national, popular movement that has been galvanized for change. While local factors and personalities (including the obnoxious one of jillionaire and soon to be ex-Governor John Corzine) figured heavily into both gubernatorial elections, it also true that if Democrats and independents were half as energized as they were a year ago, the Republican victories would have been thwarted.
Instead, millions who voted for Obama a year ago simply sat it out this time around. And who can blame them? Who is going to get off the couch to vote for such a poor candidate as Creigh Deeds who took pains to distance himself from Obama and who had vowed to opt Virginia out of an eventual public health care option? Or for the unpopular Corzine, a former CEO of, gulp, Goldman Sachs?
There is no question in my mind that the real underlying issues in tonight’s elections were neither Obama nor even those much-touted “local issues.” It was, as always, the economy, stupid. Anytime you’re looking at 10% national unemployment, a depressed housing market, devastated 401K’s and more general uncertainty than a shaky day on the San Andreas Fault, the incumbent party and its candidates are easy targets. I would maintain, however, that it didn’t really have to be that way. Obama came into office with the economy already in tatters and with a public that knew very well that it was the Bush crew that should be blamed.
The Obama recovery bail-outs and the stimulus programs might, indeed, be necessary evils, or maybe even something better. Many economists now argue that the emergency economic measures he took may have saved us from a full-scale Depression or, at a minimum, we would be even worse off now than we are if hadn’t acted. But there aren’t that many economists who vote.
Those recovery measures, however, were not enough. Maybe Obama should get the blame, or part of it. Maybe he was hostage to his own hidebound party or he is accomplice, or both. Either way, the conclusion is the same. The Democratic congress did damn little, if anything at all, to enact measures that boldly and openly defended the little guy. Billions were dished out to the most corrupt Wall Street thieves (again, perhaps as a necessity) but what did the Average Joe get out of it? A few more weeks of unemployment insurance, a couple of months more of discounted COBRA after getting laid off, and the right to watch the grotesque spectacle of a bought-off congress squabble and split hairs over a phantom health care bill — which we learn tonight is now likely to be postponed until next year. Would you get off the couch for that?
Democrats began this year with history absolutely on their side. An awe-inspiring president. An unprecedented congressional majority. A deflated and disoriented AND marginalized Republican Party. And an historic economic crisis that could have and should have been exploited as a moment of historic re-ordering of national priorities — of transformative change. Instead, we pretty much got business-as-usual from a business-as-usual party. We all knew that the Democrats won in 2006 because the Republicans had exhausted themselves. And we all know that Obama, as formidable a candidate as he was in his own terms, was also the beneficiary of that same Republican collapse.
Tuesday’s election was not make or break. It was just a reminder that we live in a country whose politics are dominated by two dysfunctional parties — not just one.
P.S. Total up the campaign of Republican Mike Bloomberg (re-elected as Mayor of New York) and the defeated Democratic Governor of New Jersey John Corzine and you see they spent $340 million they earned on Wall Street. That’s some real change.
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Our Neon Tommy piece of the day is a poodcast discussion among reporters Kevin Grant, Kim Nowacki and Dominic Riley about the impact of new media tools.
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November 3rd, 2009 at 9:42 pm
I have to say that I was barely aware of the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia until fairly recently and from what I can tell the main blame for the losses is on lousy Dem candidates, including an incumbent who couldn’t carry through on a clear set of expectations (that’s a lesson for all pols, all the way up to the White House.) But the race that drew most of the attention – meaningless as it may actually be on balance – was not the one where Dems lost in states that have a mixed party history and elections that were in no sense unexpected upsets, but where the out-of-state hard right put their money and energy on a “run-to-the-right” strategy against a relatively moderate local GOP and tossed a sure-GOP-thing into the Democratic column, actually INCREASING the power of…uh…Nancy Pelosi. Good work. It’s also worth noting that the congressional race that got absolutely zero attention was a traditionally “centrist” Democratic district in the Bay Area suburbs where a much more overtly liberal candidate than the previous incumbent won handily. Maybe there’s a lesson there as well, although I don’t expect to hear anything about it from Chuck Todd.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:54 pm
The promised “tip of the spear” Tea Bagger candidate in NY’s- 23 has just conceeded defeat.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:29 pm
[...] Marc Cooper explains why. Share: [...]
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:06 pm
C’mon Marc, “Two cents”? Two? Reads more like enough to ride the bus. Get a day pass even, eh?
So, the Democrats have to do what exactly (or even sorta) in order for 2010 to not be a re-run of 1994? Are we going to see and hear an amplification of the Democratic fighters like Congressman Grayson, or will it be more of ol’ what’s his name?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lywkR0RN_U4
November 4th, 2009 at 12:13 am
I sincerely hope Obama and the Democratic party leadership are patient and smart enough to lose no sleep about what happened in New Jersey and Virginia.
The last thing the party needs is some kind of desperate response to inevitable short-term, fickle behavior by “Average Joe” swing voters…There’s nothing good the party can do to win those voters and plenty bad to try and win them…
November 4th, 2009 at 2:50 am
The main winner is Scott Rasmussen, who’ll tell Marc that the idea that only 20% of Americans identify with the Republicans is absurd. His polls is NJ were the closest to the result.
November 4th, 2009 at 4:35 am
hi ,i including an incumbent who couldn’t carry through on a clear set of expectations (that’s a lesson for all pols, all the way up to the White House.) But the race that drew most of the attention – meaningless as it may actually be on balance – was not the one where Dems lost in states that have a mixed party history and elections that were in no sense unexpected upsets,
November 4th, 2009 at 5:36 am
at least Hoffman lost. What an odious figure.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:17 am
His polls is NJ were the closest to the result.
It was independent, suburban voters who elected Christie. You know nothing about politics in New Jersey.
November 4th, 2009 at 7:56 am
You know nothing about politics in New Jersey.
I’ll agree with that. My point is that Rasmussen proved to be the most accurate pollster. And as a Republican, I’m pleased as hell that independent, suburban voters support my Party.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:47 am
“support my Party”
Support “your Party”, comrade, or support Christie? And is “your Party” the same one that pitchforked Scozzafava in a rite of party purification, while throwing its “rogue” star power behind an extremist who just got teabagged?
And here I used to think the Dems were the schizoid party. Big tent, har!
November 4th, 2009 at 8:58 am
Well, kyle, some of us considered Hoffman to be the better Republican. No biggie though. Owens is gonna take a few long pulls on his chin before he votes for PelosiCare or the Waxman-Obama Warm House Tax.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:15 am
And as a Republican, I’m pleased as hell that independent, suburban voters support my Party
Wrong again. They voted for Christie, not the party.
Owens is gonna take a few long pulls on his chin before he votes for PelosiCare or the Waxman-Obama Warm House Tax.
Don’t be so sure. between Ft. Drum and Plattsburgh AFB, that region is pork paradise.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Owens won after endorsing “PelosiCare”, i.e. a bill with a public option, in his televised debate. You people are hopelessly out of touch with mainstream America. Time to quit buying into the horseshit that passes for “analysis” on that “left-wing” MSNBC cable channel’s “Morning Joe.” Or worse, the wacky world of FOX. The stuff you hear there from Scarborough and his sidekick, or from Murdoch’s Mental Cases is near-total nonsense.
The country wants a health care bill with a public option competing with insurance companies they don’t trust. Unless every poll is always wrong, that’s a simple fact. Owen’s “dithered” on that issue, but came out on the right side when he was still just trying to win a long-shot election. So there’s no reason for him to shift now. (Also that GOP-friendly seat is about to disappear due to redistricting, so Owens has even more incentive to act like a real Dem.) Time to quit dreaming. Owens is a major defeat for the phony, self-promoting, book-selling “conservative” demagogues of the GOP. Major. And it was a defeat engineered by the party’s own mad bomber squad – Limbaugh, Palin, Beck, even Pawlenty and Scarborough. That faction is red meat for the true believers and dead meat for the party.
Governors’ races are what they are – and these two prove little or nothing related to national politics. The line that Dems need to “run scared” to the right to succeed, rather than follow through on the agenda that Obama was elected on is because that’s the one path that wil weaken us. Meanwhile, enjoy your food fight. A bit of triumphalism this Wednesday will only energize you for the leap off the cliff. I predicted just two Dem wins on Tuesday – but I expected them to be Corzine and Garamendi, not Owens, which gives Pelosi another pro-public option health care reform vote in her pocket.
Owens is not as liberal as Garamendi, who ran much more liberal than the his centrist-Dem predecesser and won big, but both of these races are a big win for Pelosi. I repeat: Big win for Pelosi ! Christie impacts nothing national, except getting an unpopular incumbent out of the way when Dems run for Congress in NJ next year, which if anything increases the congressional Dem appeal to those pesky NJ “independents” who like to split up their ballots and support.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:28 am
“to be the better Republican”
Of course, comrade. Another possibility would be to vote for “the better candidate“, but I guess I’m just crazy that way. I suppose there must be a certain allure to party purity–er, party “loyalty”. It sure keeps things simple and clean!
November 4th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Incidentally, an overtly liberal Dem replacing a relatively conservative Dem in a suburban congressional district wasn’t even mentioned on any of the news shows I saw. Not a single mention. Because it doesn’t feed the pre-fab narrative of the Chuck Todds and Wolf Blitzers.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:34 am
“Conservative” Blog “Red State’s” Erick Erickson:
“The race has now been called for Democrat Bill Owens.
“This is a huge win for conservatives.”
Pass the Kool-Aid…
(Next they’re going after Charlie Christ. Where do I donate ?)
November 4th, 2009 at 9:39 am
Hey, isn’t that kind of like progressives’ “huge win” when Nader sent that message to the Democrats in late 2000? I wonder how that one turned out….
November 4th, 2009 at 9:42 am
More Great News for Republicans !!!
Here: http://tinyurl.com/ygq88ru
November 4th, 2009 at 9:52 am
The author fails to distinguish between voters, activists, party leadership, members of Congress, individual candidates, and Presidents — they are all lumped together as “the Democratic Party”, which leads to such things as claiming that the election results show there’s no national, popular movement that has been galvanized for change while at the same time saying that voters are blameless for staying home due to lackluster candidates — but being galvanized for change is one thing, while having already made the changes that give you the power to select candidates is another; its an ongoing — and slow going — process for progressive activists to move the party to the left; that there’s a long way to go doesn’t mean there’s no progress — anyone remember Al From?
And using the the 20% Republican identification figure to argue for “an incipient Democratic implosion” is bad analysis fueled by an anti-DP ideology (if one can even call it that; more like a conceit). As analysts and pollsters have noted, change in party identity doesn’t imply change in political outlook — the reduction in RP identity is highly correlated to a rightward tilt among independents — many former Republicans simply don’t call themselves that any more, but they still evaluate candidates according to their political ideology — i.e., they tend to vote for the same people they would have voted for if they still called themselves Republicans.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Charlotte, NC elected its first Democratic mayor in 25 years and Chapel Hill, NC elected an openly gay man as mayor.
November 4th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Here’s some fact-based analysis of the NJ and VA outcomes: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/new-jersey-virginia.html
November 4th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
More good analysis from 538: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/isnt-2009-more-about-gop.html
November 4th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
TeaBaggers, Sarah Palin, Erik Erikson, Jim DeMint, Beck, Limbaugh, DickArmey, etc. etc. …
Welcome to the California ’10 Senate Race !!!
http://tinyurl.com/ye75tyr
Anything we Dems can do to help ?
November 4th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Cooperland:
Square Peg: Dems are evil, they tried to send me to
Vietnam when I wanted to get high and party.
I owe Obama my service forever for defeating
the evil Clintons.
Round Hole: Reality.
CCCRRRUUUNNCCCCHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!
O.K., now that post has been written, it must be admitted
by those of us in the reality based community that even
Marc Cooper can’t blame Obamas lethargic performance on
The Party forever… well, Marc Cooper can, but few others
will. The popularity he enjoys will only deepen the sense
of betrayal many will feel if he doesn’t stop behaving like
the President from “O” magazine.
The pass Cooper and other Clinton bashing progressives
are giving Obama on torture, by the by, is about as ugly
as gets. It’s true, the moment to act may be gone. And
nobody squandered it but Obama.
November 4th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Reg, there was SOME coverage of Garamendi, both nationally and here in California. You might have missed it, but true there wasnt that much.
As to the other comments, anyone who interprets last night’s results as Republican vindication is going to be a very disappointed individual over the next 10 years. That much is certain.
But any Democrat who believes the results to be purely anecdotal and refuses to see that they are –to some degree– an indicator of Democratic weakness and vulnerability, especially on a domestic economic agenda, is only kidding themselves.
The Repubs are without question the Living Dead, veritable Zombies. But if Democrats continue their lackluster performance or unless unemployment falls by 4% by last summer, there could be hell to pay in November. Purely unscientifically, I will affirm that given the proper state of disillusionment and disengagment, people WILL vote for zombies.
I have spent enough time in Italy to verify this observation. No one EVER admits to actually voting for a clown prick like Berlusconi but somehow he keeps getting elected. Same thing when I lived there in the 70′s. NOBODY every copped to be a Christian Democrat but the CD’s led 38 governments in a row.
Be careful.
November 4th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
I think that this was a wake up call for Dems, although the candidates in both NJ and VA had particular problems that aren’t much related to the state of the party nationally. But if the GOP moves forward in the spirit of NY23rd, it will ironically turn out to be a wake for them. The worst thing the Dems could possibly do is listen to this faux-centrism drivel coming out of cable bobbleheads and ignore the fact that both congressional Dems who won last night – even in the very conservative NY23rd – openly supported the House health care bill. And Garamendi supports it critically from the left, while winning in what has always been considered a “centrist” suburban Dem-lite district. The message isn’t for Dems to pull back on their ’08 agenda, but to move it forward while putting jobs and the economy in laser focus. Note that not a single GOP senator voted against extending unemployment benefits today. If the GOP wants to actually reap any benefits from their two-state momentum last night, they need to start acting like adults (as some GOP governors actually do) and take some responsibility for governing and confronting the real problems – which isn’t an Obama dictatorship or too much government spending at this juncture. Crank rhetoric from clowns peddling books or pandering to the tea-baggers by allegedly serious candidates like Pawlenty won’t cut it.
November 4th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
While none of us have mentioned the depressing but not terribly surprising defeat of gay marriage rights in Maine (albeit by a margin that keeps the issue alive and well and inevitable over time), there were two other votes that don’t bode well for “teabag conservatism” being taken seriously by mainstream voters: the defeat of “taxpayer bill of rights” initiatives to hobble government in Maine and Washington state. While cable bobbleheads read fear of government into the two GOP governor’s wins, the defeat of these nutty bills is evidence of rationality, not anti-government radicalism, on the part of most voters.
http://tinyurl.com/y92vgz7
November 4th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
And just to mix things up even more, medical marijuana won in Maine.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Oh, fercryinoutloud. Carly Fiorina??
November 4th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
And just to mix things up even more,
medical marijuana wongay marriage lost in Maine.November 4th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Just realized it was a year ago today, some USC professor suggested we should join him in Nevada to help some upstart senator from Illinois get elected President…
In fact, it was about this very hour, one year ago, I was dragging my number 1 girlfriend through the lobby of the Rio, smoking fine cigars and buying stout drinks for new friends….
Cheers!!
November 4th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Btw, whoever linked to the Tabor defeat — good eye!
Half-way to the full justice of it all, this was a pretty good outcome in Kalamazoo:
http://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2009/11/anti-discrimination_ordinance_1.html
November 4th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
What I did on my summer vacation (scroll down to Meas. D, Council by Districts, Detroit. I got that one on the ballot). Passed with 72%!
http://www.freep.com/section/news150101
And for what it’s worth, the folks in Detroit elected a really decent and potentially progressive city council. A couple of the saner members who stood up to Mayor “Crime Wave” Kilpatrick – Ken Cockrel, Jr., Kwame Kenyatta, and Jo Ann Watson –were returned. That’s good. Two up and coming newcomers to keep an eye on –- Saunteel Jenkins and Charles Pugh — also were elected. Detroit’s a very big and important city to the overall economic health of the US. In that the residents there are putting together a serious elected body should be applauded. Here’s a reminder of the bad old days: http://www.freep.com/article/20091104/NEWS01/91104071/1318/Conyers-sentencing-postponed
November 5th, 2009 at 1:27 am
But any Democrat who believes the results to be purely anecdotal and refuses to see that they are –to some degree– an indicator of Democratic weakness and vulnerability, especially on a domestic economic agenda, is only kidding themselves.
Pardon me if I continue to favor 538′s fact-based analysis even in the face of this sort of tautologically cramped swipe at strawmen.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:31 am
But if the GOP moves forward in the spirit of NY23rd, it will ironically turn out to be a wake for them.
A good read on that score:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-kelly/dud-baby-dud-the-lesson-o_b_345049.html
November 6th, 2009 at 1:27 am
http://www.balloon-juice.com/?p=29336
“A year after Barack Obama’s election stirred broad hopes for change among American voters, persistent high unemployment and the spectacle of continued gridlock in Washington threaten Democratic dominance of the political landscape.
Tuesday’s defeats in gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey not only ended a decade or more of Democratic gains in those states but also signaled possible trouble ahead in the midterm elections at the national level.”
Sounds so familiar …